American Express stock: One-off gain clouds higher 2026 outlook

Published on 11/05/2026 at 16:41 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

American Express stock faces slower revenue growth after management lifted its 2026 profit outlook. Valuation and the late-January report are the next investor tests.

Profit boost meets revenue test

American Express raised its 2026 earnings outlook while keeping its 10% revenue-growth target.
A one-time stake-sale gain accounts for much of the reported guidance increase, leaving slower revenue growth as the main operating risk.
The late-January fourth-quarter report is the next major test for spending, credit quality and the 2027 outlook.

American Express, US0258161092, Illustration mit AI erstellt.

American Express raised its 2026 earnings outlook after reporting third-quarter results on October 23, but the quality of that increase remains central for investors. A Yahoo Finance analysis published on November 4 highlighted the gap between the headline profit upgrade and the underlying operating momentum.

What changed after the earnings report

Third-quarter revenue rose 9% year over year to 20.1 billion US dollars, while adjusted earnings per share increased 13% to 4.68 US dollars. Reported earnings per share reached 5.42 US dollars, helped by a 982 million US dollar pretax gain from the sale of American Express's stake in Global Business Travel Group.

Management lifted reported 2026 earnings guidance to 18.30 to 18.60 US dollars per share from 17.30 to 17.90 US dollars. On an adjusted basis, the outlook is 17.60 to 17.90 US dollars, while the company retained its 10% revenue-growth target. The Yahoo Finance analysis said the gain adds 0.70 US dollars per share to the new range after accounting for a restructuring charge.

Billed business increased 8% to 454.0 billion US dollars, and the net write-off rate improved to 1.8% from 1.9% a year earlier. Those figures point to resilient spending and credit performance, although revenue growth slowed from 10% in the second quarter to 9% in the third.

Valuation leaves less room

The analysis put American Express at 16.9 times forward earnings, below its five-year average of 17.4 times. It also cited analyst targets ranging from 320 to 425 US dollars after the earnings release. The next major company test is the fourth-quarter report expected in late January, when management typically provides its first outlook for the following year.

American Express stock traded at 296.20 euros on Lang & Schwarz at 16:33 CET on Thursday, November 5, 2026.

Investors can follow the real-time quote of American Express stock.