BHP stock: RBC sees major copper growth from South Australia

Published on 11/07/2026 at 10:23 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

BHP stock enters the weekend with a longer-term copper expansion case in focus. RBC sees substantial production potential in South Australia by 2035.

Copper expansion shapes BHP outlook

RBC sees Copper South Australia as a major contributor to BHP's long-term copper growth plan.
The expansion would require significant capital spending and depends on long-term copper prices.
Lower copper output in the latest quarter remains an execution issue for the miner.

BHP, US0886061086, Illustration mit AI erstellt.

BHP's copper growth plans gained fresh attention this week after RBC Capital Markets raised its long-term production forecast for Copper South Australia. A report by Yahoo Finance Australia, carrying a Proactive report published on Wednesday, November 4, said the bank sees the operation as the largest potential contributor to BHP's plan to lift copper production by about 45% to 2 million tonnes by 2035.

South Australia offers expansion potential

RBC raised its forecast for Copper South Australia's 2035 production to 503,000 tonnes from 376,000 tonnes. The estimate is based on planned expansions at Olympic Dam and Carrapateena, including a larger smelter and refinery, a new block cave mine and a potential underground expansion at Olympic Dam.

The first phase is expected to require 11.6 billion US dollars in capital expenditure and could lift annual production to about 500,000 tonnes by 2035. A second phase could take output to 650,000 tonnes by 2040. RBC said the first phase would be value-accretive if long-term copper prices exceed 5.20 US dollars per pound.

Execution remains the near-term test

The longer-term expansion case follows a weaker start to fiscal 2027. BHP reported first-quarter copper production of 400,700 tonnes, down 19% from a year earlier, while keeping its full-year copper guidance at 1.65 million to 1.80 million tonnes. The unchanged target leaves operating performance in the remaining quarters important for delivery.

BHP stock traded at 71.75 euros on Lang & Schwarz at 10:21 CET on Saturday, November 7, 2026. Investors can follow the real-time quote of BHP stock.