Commonwealth Bank of Australia stock: CBA expects November RBA hike

Commonwealth Bank of Australia economists changed their outlook for the Reserve Bank of Australia on Wednesday, 28 October 2026, and now expect a November rate increase. In a CommBank report, Head of Australian Economics Belinda Allen said the bank sees the move as an insurance hike against persistent inflation pressures.

CommBank shifts its rate call

CommBank had previously expected the RBA to leave rates unchanged in November. The change followed the release of September-quarter inflation figures and a more hawkish tone from the central bank, according to the bank's newsroom report.

Trimmed mean inflation, the RBA's preferred underlying measure, rose 1.0 percent in the September quarter and reached 3.7 percent over the year. The quarterly result matched CommBank's forecast, while the annual figure exceeded its earlier projection of 3.6 percent. Allen said inflation remained too high despite the result being broadly in line with expectations.

The bank also pointed to higher energy costs, global investment linked to artificial intelligence, limited domestic capacity and weak productivity. RBA Governor Michele Bullock said some risks identified in the central bank's earlier forecasts had materialised or were emerging, while the labour market appeared tighter than previously judged.

Economic costs move into focus

CommBank expects another increase to weigh on household spending, housing and employment. The bank said spending growth was moderating, housing prices had fallen across Australia and new housing lending had declined. Monetary policy operates with a lag, so the full effect of the previous increases has not yet reached the economy.

After November, CommBank expects the RBA to remain on hold in December and February while it assesses inflation and growth. The bank expects updated forecasts to show higher inflation, weaker growth and higher unemployment than previously projected. It has pencilled in possible rate cuts in August and November 2027, while stressing that the timing remains uncertain.

CBA stock and investor context

The real-time quote of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia stock stood at 104.73 euros at Lang & Schwarz on Friday, 30 October 2026, at 09:18 Berlin time. The rate outlook is relevant for the bank because higher rates can support lending margins while also increasing pressure on borrowers, credit quality and housing activity.

The Australian share market remains the relevant domestic market backdrop for Commonwealth Bank investors; see the latest S&P/ASX 200 market coverage.

Next on the calendar is the RBA's monetary policy decision on Tuesday, 3 November 2026. Further news and analysis on Commonwealth Bank of Australia stock will follow the decision.