Commonwealth Bank stock faces deeper housing downturn forecast
Published on 11/10/2026 at 15:46 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWSHousing Forecast Raises Bank Concerns
- CommBank now expects the national housing downturn to be the largest in its long-running monthly series.
- Higher interest rates are extending pressure on Australian housing and household finances.
- The bank sees stabilisation in the second half of 2027 but no material recovery at that point.
Commonwealth Bank economists cut their Australian housing forecasts on Tuesday, November 3, as higher interest rates and a broader property correction weighed on the outlook. The analysis was published by CommBank.
Commonwealth Bank stock traded at 102.67 euros on Lang & Schwarz at 15:33 CET on Tuesday, November 10, 2026. That was 1.71% below the 104.46 euros cited in the company's own report published on November 7.
Housing Forecast Turns More Pessimistic
CommBank now expects national dwelling values to fall 14% from peak to trough, compared with its previous 9% forecast from September. The five-capital-city average is expected to decline 15%.
Brisbane and Perth face the sharpest revisions, with projected peak-to-trough falls of 18% in both markets, compared with 8% previously. Sydney's forecast moved to 16%, while Melbourne and Adelaide are each expected to decline 13%.
Higher Rates Extend Mortgage Pressure
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.85% at its November meeting. CommBank's latest housing forecast assumes that higher rate peak, compared with the 4.60% assumption used in September.
Senior economist Trent Saunders estimates that the higher rate scenario reduces national dwelling price growth in 2027 by around two percentage points. For the bank, weaker housing activity and household demand could weigh on credit growth and asset quality, while higher rates may support lending margins.
Stabilisation Remains Distant
CommBank expects national dwelling prices to fall 8% during 2026 and another 3% in 2027. The bank expects the market to stabilise in the second half of 2027, supported by lower prices, higher rental yields, tight underlying supply and a possible easing in monetary policy.
CommBank does not expect a material recovery at that point, leaving mortgage demand, credit quality and the path of interest rates as central issues for investors.
Australia's broader equity market remains an important backdrop for bank shares; follow the S&P/ASX 200 for market context.
More news and analyses on Commonwealth Bank stock.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia
- ISIN: AU000000CBA7
- Lang & Schwarz quote: 102.67 euros on November 10, 2026, at 15:33 CET
- Change since November 7 report: -1.71% from 104.46 euros
- Housing forecast: 14% national peak-to-trough decline
- Sector: Banking
