ITC stock faces earnings test as cigarette business weighs on forecasts

ITC Ltd is heading into its second-quarter earnings report with cigarette taxes and segment growth at the center of investor attention. Business Today reported on Friday, October 30, 2026, that the company is scheduled to release its results on November 2.

Business Today cited YES Securities, which expects standalone net profit to fall 22.9 percent year over year to INR 39.258 billion and revenue to decline 3.5 percent to INR 173.94 billion. The brokerage also sees EBITDA falling 23.5 percent to INR 47.833 billion, with cigarette volumes down 6.0 percent.

Cigarette business remains the drag

Emkay Global expects net sales to rise 3 percent, but projects EBITDA to decline by more than 15 percent as the cigarette segment absorbs the impact of the excise-duty increase effective February 1, 2026. Its view calls for a 21 percent decline in cigarette-business net sales and a 29 percent fall in segment EBIT.

The forecasts also point to differences across ITC's businesses. YES Securities expects other FMCG revenue to grow 11.5 percent, paperboards and packaging to benefit from the Century acquisition, and agriculture to expand 35 percent. Emkay Global forecasts growth in other FMCG, agriculture, and paperboards and packaging, but still expects group EBITDA to decline 18 percent.

November 2 is the next catalyst

The earnings release will show whether growth outside cigarettes can offset pressure in the tobacco operation. It should also clarify the early contribution from the paperboards and packaging business and the effect of the tax changes on margins.

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