Original-Research: bet-at-home.com AG (von NuWays AG): BUY

Original-Research: bet-at-home.com AG - from NuWays AG



06.11.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to bet-at-home.com AG



     Company Name:                bet-at-home.com AG
     ISIN:                        DE000A0DNAY5



     Reason for the research:     Update
     Recommendation:              BUY
     Target price:                EUR 4.7
     Target price on sight of:    12 months
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Sarah Hellemann



Q3'26: Setting the stage for a stronger performance from FY27e



Yesterday, bet-at-home.com reported Q3 figures: Online Gaming and the bottom
line beat expectations, while Online Betting has yet to return to volume
growth, leaving the top line slightly short. Management is seen to address
this with additional digital marketing and customer management efforts
highlighted in Tuesday's guidance adjustment. In detail:



Moderate GGR growth in seasonally weak quarter. GGR grew by 5.6% yoy to EUR
10.8m (eNuW: EUR 11.2m). Key growth driver was a strong Online Gaming
performance, partially compensating for the shortfall in Online Betting. Net
revenue increased by 7% yoy to EUR 8.1m (eNuW: EUR 8.5m), mainly driven by
growth in GGR and a slight positive tax effect resulting from a lower tax
burden on betting revenue.



Online Gaming GGR accelerated by 33.3% yoy to EUR 2.3m (eNuW: EUR 2.1m). Volumes
rose 32% yoy to 18.5m (eNuW: 17.4m), positively impacted by a strong
customer response to the regulatory change in maximum stake per virtual slot
in Germany. The gaming margin improved by 0.2pp to 12.3% (eNuW: 12.1%),
benefitting from the company's efforts to maintain its margin gains
(Q2'26:12.3%).



Online Sports Betting GGR remained flat yoy at EUR 8.6m (eNuW: EUR 9.1m). While
volumes continued on their trajectory towards stabilization, they still fell
by 1.6% (eNuW: +2.5%) to 64.7m (eNuW: 67.4m). Despite increased Q2
marketing, an improved betting offering and better usability, customer
response remained slower than anticipated during the seasonally weaker
quarter. The betting margin rose 0.2pp yoy to 13.3%, slightly below our
expectations (eNuW: 13.5%) due to unfavorable match outcomes.



Bottom-line ahead of expectations. EBITDA before special items improved to EUR
-0.1m (eNuW: EUR -0.5m; Q3'25: EUR -0.9m), helped by more effective marketing,
with the margin up 7.5pp to -1.3% (eNuW: -4.7%). Reported EBITDA stood at EUR
-0.5m (eNuW: EUR -0.7m).



FY26 guidance adjusted. The company narrowed and lowered its FY26 GGR
guidance from EUR 46-54m to EUR 46-49m (c. EUR 47m expected by management) and cut
its EBITDA before special items guidance from EUR 0-4m to EUR -1.6-0m, to
reflect the top-line adjustment and the EUR 0.8m in additional expenses
related to optimizing digital marketing and existing customer management.
While this weighs on near-term profitability, we view the initiatives as the
foundation for a recovery from FY27e, when we expect GGR growth of 7.8%.
Further upside stems from the launch of Casinoro and a potentially positive
ECJ ruling on legacy legal proceedings.



Adjusting our estimates to reflect the new pace. We lower our FY26 GGR
estimate to EUR 47.4m (previously EUR 49m) and EBITDA before special items to EUR
-0.3m (previously EUR 0.5m). For FY27e, we reduce GGR to EUR 51.1m (previously EUR
53.9m) and EBITDA before special items to EUR 3.9m (previously EUR 5.3m). As
FY26 FCF is burdened by the combination of the softer top line and
additional investments, it is no longer a meaningful valuation basis. Hence,
we roll forward to FCFY'27e. Maintaining BUY at a PT of EUR 4.7 (previously EUR
5.0).



You can download the research here:
https://nwr.eqs-cockpit.com/fncls2.ssx?fn=redirect&u=8a41df35ae3781dc7c412dd31f5ecdfc
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research



Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++



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2429688 06.11.2026 CET/CEST