Original-Research: Global Fashion Group S.A. (von NuWays AG): BUY

Original-Research: Global Fashion Group S.A. - from NuWays AG



06.11.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to Global Fashion Group S.A.



     Company Name:                Global Fashion Group S.A.
     ISIN:                        LU2010095458



     Reason for the research:     Update
     Recommendation:              BUY
     Target price:                EUR 1
     Target price on sight of:    12 months
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Christian Sandherr



Q3 review: Margin gains carry profitability through soft demand



Topic: GFG's Q3 figures show that the improved unit economics hold up even
as demand softens, with normalized free cash flow being positive for the
second consecutive quarter.



Q3 group NMV came in at EUR 243m, down 5.4% yoy (on cc) after -0.6% in Q2. In
euro terms, NMV grew c. 2% to EUR 243m, as AUD and BRL turned supportive.
Active customers fell 7.2% to 6.9m and orders by 9.2%, while average order
value (+4.1% cc to EUR 68.6) and order frequency (+1.8%) rose again. According
to management, costly energy and high interest rates continue to squeeze
household budgets for non-essential purchases. Q3 sales of EUR 157m (-7.7% cc)
again lagged NMV, partly as SEA's marketplace business reached a record
share.



Higher gross margin, leaner cost base. Q3 adj. EBITDA rose to EUR 3.4m (2.1%
margin vs. 0.6% in Q3'25). Drivers were a 0.9pp higher gross margin of
47.0%, fixed cost savings, the effects of past restructuring and a positive
FX contribution.



ANZ grows, SEA trades volume for margin. ANZ was the only region to grow,
with NMV up 1.4% cc, a larger customer base and a better gross margin. LATAM
(-9.7% cc) faced a triple burden in Brazil: consumer sentiment dropped to a
level last seen in early 2025, the World Cup weighed until mid-July and the
presidential vote created uncertainty. In Colombia, an earthquake hurt
demand. LATAM's gross margin declined 1.4pp. SEA remains the clearest case
of profit over volume: NMV dropped 16.6% cc, but reduced discounting lifted
retail margins and pushed gross margin 4.5pp higher to 49.4%, the best Q3 on
record.



Cash breakeven on LTM basis in sight. Q3 normalised FCF of EUR 1.2m (Q3'25: EUR
-15.3m) benefited from a EUR 7m working capital inflow. Roughly half stems
from receivables that will flow back out in Q4, the rest from better
payables. Over the last twelve months, NFCF improved by EUR 33m yoy to EUR -2m.
Pro-forma cash stood at EUR 93m with net cash of EUR 82m. Not part of NFCF: GFG
collected its first DIFAL tax refunds in Brazil (EUR 0.8m, with c. EUR 2m more
already won). A further EUR 40.9m sits in court-held deposits across 32
pending cases, an option on additional cash, though neither timing nor
outcome is predictable.



Q4 needs no heroics. GFG confirmed FY26 guidance but now points to the lower
end of the -4% to 0% cc NMV range (EUR 1,050-1,090m). October was softer than
Q3, with Brazilian demand volatile after the election. The low end implies
Q4 NMV of c. EUR 328m, roughly in line with Q4'25. Adj. EBITDA guidance of EUR
18-25m implies EUR 14-21m in Q4; our EUR 19m requires c. EUR 15m, below last
year's EUR 16.2m. As the peak shopping events (Singles' Day, Black Friday,
Christmas) are still to come, Q4 results could vary considerably.



Action: We trim growth estimates, as the NMV and sales decline was stronger
than expected amid weak consumer sentiment in LATAM and SEA. Our adj. EBITDA
estimate remains unchanged.



Demand remains soft, but the quarter confirms that profitability no longer
depends on volume growth: group gross margin and adj. EBITDA rose despite 5%
lower NMV (cc). Positive NFCF in a seasonally weak Q3 underlines that the EUR
30m adj. EBITDA hurdle for FY NFCF breakeven remains within reach. We
confirm BUY with an unchanged EUR 1.00 PT based on DCF.



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For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research



Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++



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2429702 06.11.2026 CET/CEST