Sempra stock faces earnings test as Oncor rates drive Q3 focus

Sempra will report third-quarter 2026 results before the US market opens on Thursday, November 5. A Drillr Research analysis published on November 3 highlights three issues for investors: the first full quarter under Oncor's new rates, the earnings outlook for Sempra's California utilities and the status of the planned KKR transaction.

Sempra's adjusted earnings per share reached 2.67 US dollars in the first half, up 14 percent from a year earlier. Texas segment earnings rose 46 percent to 517 million US dollars, while California contributed 1.017 billion US dollars. Management's full-year adjusted EPS guidance remains 4.80 to 5.30 US dollars, with 2027 guidance at 5.10 to 5.70 US dollars.

Oncor rates face first full-quarter test

Oncor's revised rates took effect on June 1 after regulators approved an annual revenue requirement of about 6.97 billion US dollars. The settlement also lifted the authorized equity ratio to 43.5 percent and the return on equity to 9.75 percent. Sempra said the second-quarter Texas result included roughly 50 million US dollars of catch-up earnings related to the first quarter, making the third quarter a cleaner test of the new rate structure.

The Texas utility serves a growing market where data centers and other large loads are driving transmission and distribution investment. That growth supports Sempra's long-term capital plan, but higher depreciation, interest and operating costs could absorb part of the rate increase. Investors will therefore focus on recurring Texas earnings rather than the prior quarter's one-time benefit.

California and LNG add execution risk

California remains Sempra's largest earnings base, but regulators reduced the authorized returns for SDG&E and SoCalGas. Second-quarter California earnings still increased to 297 million US dollars from adjusted earnings of 284 million US dollars a year earlier, while capital spending fell 24 percent to 934 million US dollars. The report should show whether rate-base growth can offset lower returns and higher financing costs.

The planned sale of a 45 percent interest in SI Partners to KKR is another major point. Sempra expects 4.65 billion US dollars in cash at closing and has said the transaction could remove about 9 billion US dollars of consolidated debt. The company is also working through compressor damage discovered after the first cargo from ECA LNG Phase 1; substantial completion remains targeted for the fourth quarter, subject to repairs and the root-cause investigation.

The real-time quote of Sempra stock traded at 74.11 euros on Lang & Schwarz at 15:00 CET on Wednesday, November 4, 4.08 percent below the Xetra close of Tuesday, November 3. The Borse Frankfurt share page lists the prior Xetra close at 77.26 euros.

The S&P 500 provides the relevant US market backdrop without determining Sempra's company-specific earnings outlook.

More news and analyses on Sempra stock will center on the November 5 release, management's updated outlook and the progress of the KKR and ECA LNG projects.