Suncor Energy stock: Fair value rises to CA$115.20

Simply Wall St raised its fair-value estimate for Suncor Energy in an update shared on Wednesday, October 28, 2026. The estimate moved from CA$107.35 to CA$115.20, an increase of 7.31 percent, according to the analysis published by Yahoo Finance.

The revision reflects a more constructive view of Suncor's earnings capacity. The model lifted its net profit margin assumption from 12.0 percent to 14.6 percent, while its future price-to-earnings multiple fell from 21.35 to 18.77. The lower multiple means the higher fair value was not based solely on applying a richer valuation to projected earnings.

Refining remains the key swing factor

The analysis links the improved outlook to higher price targets across the analyst community, Suncor's refining exposure and distillate leverage. Yahoo Finance cited target increases from Scotiabank, CIBC, Raymond James and Jefferies, with those targets reaching the C$111 to C$123 range. Morgan Stanley also moved to an Overweight stance from Equal Weight and highlighted the company's sensitivity to refining margins.

The more positive view is not without risks. BofA maintained a Neutral rating while raising its target to US$112 from US$94, pointing to a mixed third-quarter backdrop in which oil prices declined while refining margins and global gas prices strengthened. Jefferies kept a Hold rating and flagged the leadership transition as an issue for investors to monitor.

The same model still points to a decline in revenue growth, with the assumption improving only modestly from a 1.24 percent contraction to a 1.19 percent contraction. Its discount rate remains 6.44 percent. These assumptions leave the fair-value estimate sensitive to commodity prices, refinery performance, margin durability and execution during the leadership transition.

Market quote and investor context

Suncor Energy stock traded at 70.33 euros on Lang & Schwarz at 12:35 CET on Friday, October 30, 2026. Investors can follow the real-time quote of Suncor Energy stock for the latest indication.

Suncor's investor-relations site lists the company on both the Toronto Stock Exchange and the New York Stock Exchange. It also reported record second-quarter free funds flow per share of C$3.38 and described downstream operations as the main contributor to the quarter's performance. The company said it returned 100 percent of excess funds to shareholders through dividends and repurchases in 2025. Further company information is available on the Suncor investor-relations page.

The broader market environment remains important because oil prices, refining margins and equity-market valuation multiples can materially change the assumptions behind energy-sector targets.

Further company-specific analysis is available in more news and analyses on Suncor Energy stock.