Mosaic Company, US61945C1036

The Mosaic Company stock faces Freedom Sell call over sulfur costs

Published on 11/13/2026 at 22:23 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

The Mosaic Company stock faces a Freedom Sell call as sulfur costs squeeze phosphate profits. The broker lifted its target to USD 18.

Analyst downgrade and cost pressure

Freedom Broker cut its Mosaic recommendation from Hold to Sell while lifting the target to USD 18.
Higher sulfur and ammonia costs pushed third-quarter adjusted EBITDA down to USD 324 million from USD 806 million.
Analysts expect the fourth quarter to mark the earnings low point, with cheaper sulfur providing greater support in early 2027.

Mosaic Company, US61945C1036, Illustration mit AI erstellt.

Freedom Broker downgraded its recommendation on The Mosaic Company from Hold to Sell on Friday, November 13, 2026, while raising its price target from USD 17 to USD 18. The analysts said high sulfur costs continue to pressure the fertilizer producer's phosphate business and that the expected recovery does not yet justify the share price.

The Mosaic Company stock traded at 19.67 euros on Lang & Schwarz at 10:21 p.m. CET on Friday, November 13, 2026.

Sulfur costs overwhelm phosphate gains

According to Freedom Broker, third-quarter revenue fell 10 percent year over year to USD 3.1 billion, while adjusted EBITDA declined from USD 806 million to USD 324 million. The adjusted loss per share was USD 0.19.

Phosphate sales volume reached 1.4 million tonnes, and the realized price for diammonium phosphate rose to USD 838 per tonne from USD 773 in the previous quarter. Those gains did not offset higher sulfur costs, which increased to USD 715 per long ton from USD 522, alongside higher downtime expenses.

Fourth-quarter pressure remains

Freedom expects the fourth quarter to be the company's EBITDA low point. Although Mosaic secured sulfur for USD 615 per long ton for the fourth quarter, the lower-cost supply is expected to have its largest financial effect in the first quarter of 2027. The broker cut its quarterly adjusted EBITDA forecast to USD 232 million from USD 525 million.

The outlook for potash is also more cautious. Mosaic reduced its expected realized potash price range to USD 255-275 per tonne and lowered annual potash production guidance to 8.6 million tonnes. Freedom forecasts adjusted EBITDA of USD 1.76 billion for 2027, below its earlier estimate and the cited consensus.

Cash generation remains a constraint

Freedom estimates that third-quarter free cash flow was about USD 2 million, supported by a USD 207 million working-capital release. The broker expects full-year 2026 free cash flow to remain negative at USD 114 million before dividends, while management plans to reduce 2027 capital spending below USD 1 billion.