Unilever Indonesia stock faces lower forecasts as volumes grow

Unilever Indonesia stock is facing a more demanding recovery after BRI Danareksa Sekuritas lowered its earnings forecasts, even as the company continues to expand through stronger volumes. In its equity research report published on Thursday, November 5, the broker retained a Buy rating and set a revised target price of IDR 1,900.

BRI Danareksa cut its fiscal 2026 to 2028 earnings estimates by 3.4% to 7.2%. The report cited lower gross-margin assumptions and expectations that input-cost inflation will persist beyond fiscal 2026. Weakening consumer purchasing power and volatile input costs remain key risks.

Volume Growth Supports Recovery

Unilever Indonesia reported third-quarter sales of IDR 8.9 trillion, up 7.4% year on year, in results published on Thursday, October 22. Underlying volume growth contributed 6.4%, while sales for the first nine months rose 7.2% to IDR 25.8 trillion. Net profit from continuing operations increased 10.6% in the same period.

The company said the quarter marked its fifth consecutive period of volume-led growth. Expansion was broad-based across Home and Personal Care as well as Foods and Refreshment, with the business also emphasizing stronger brands, premium products and online distribution.

Costs Keep Margins In Focus

BRI Danareksa said third-quarter gross margin fell to 42.3% as crude palm oil and crude oil prices increased. Higher logistics costs for distribution beyond Indonesias main islands added to the pressure, limiting how much of the sales recovery translated into earnings.

Management is responding with selective pricing, premiumization and structural efficiency measures. Transformation costs reached IDR 57 billion in the third quarter after IDR 170 billion in the first half. The company now targets a 40% to 50% year-on-year reduction in transformation costs for fiscal 2026, compared with its earlier 30% to 40% target.

Further average selling price increases are planned for the fourth quarter of 2026 and fiscal 2027. The premium segment represented 32% of the market mix in July 2026 and was growing nearly twice as fast as the non-premium segment, according to the broker report.

Stock Context And Next Steps

Unilever Indonesia stock was last quoted at 0.08 euros on Lang & Schwarz at 09:44 CET on Tuesday, November 10. The quote is the latest dated euro quotation available for the instrument and is not presented with a daily direction.

Indonesias broader equity market provides the relevant backdrop in Current market reports.

Investors will be watching the companys planned pricing actions, cost savings and the expected update on the Foods business before the end of 2026. More news and analyses on Unilever Indonesia stock are available in the topic overview.