A $12 Trillion Mandate and a Tungsten Supply Crisis Converge on Almonty This Week

Passive fund managers have no choice: they must buy Almonty Industries, and they must do it now — at a time when the stock is trading 33% below its April high and losing ground by the day. Effective this week, the tungsten and molybdenum producer joins the Russell 1000 and Russell 3000 indices, two of the most widely tracked benchmarks in global equities. Roughly $12.2 trillion in assets are pegged to these indexes, meaning every ETF and index fund that follows them is obligated to build a position. The timing is awkward. Almonty’s shares were changing hands at C$22.33 on the day of inclusion, down nearly 3%, and have shed more than 15% over the past seven sessions.

The forced buying comes on the heels of an operational turnaround that made the index qualification possible. In the first quarter of 2026, revenue tripled to C$25.4 million, while operating cash flow swung to positive C$9.7 million. Cash reserves swelled to C$259.9 million. The driver is Almonty’s Sangdong mine in South Korea, which has been processing 640,000 tonnes of ore annually since March and targeting 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate per year. A second phase, expected in 2027, will double throughput to 4,600 tonnes — enough to cover roughly 40% of the world’s tungsten demand outside China.

That output is becoming strategically indispensable. Starting in January 2027, new US procurement rules will ban tungsten sourced from China, Russia, or North Korea in Western military supply chains. Chinese export controls have already driven the price of tungsten up by more than 550%. The European APT price — a key benchmark — surged from around $1,800 per metric tonne in mid-February to over $3,100 by the end of March 2026. Almonty’s Sangdong mine, located in a friendly jurisdiction, is one of the few non-Chinese assets that can fill the gap.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?

Adjacent to Sangdong, a drilling campaign for molybdenum is underway. Roughly 37% of the planned 26 holes have been completed, and assays confirm continuity of the known mineralisation. The local processor SeAH M&S has already signed an offtake agreement with a floor price of $19 per pound. Almonty has also relocated its headquarters to Dillon, Montana and acquired the nearby Gentung tungsten project, which is expected to reach production readiness in the second half of 2026.

The technical backdrop adds a layer of tension. Almonty’s relative strength index stands at 38.8, nudging into oversold territory. The stock trades some 15% below its 50-day moving average and has lost 18% over the past 30 days. With annualised volatility above 91%, the shares react violently to news. The index-driven buying is entering a market that has been trending sharply lower, not higher.

CEO Lewis Black framed the Russell inclusion as a milestone earned through performance, not invitation. “Almonty has earned its place based on the numbers,” he said. Beyond the initial wave of purchases, membership typically draws broader analyst coverage, deepens the institutional shareholder base, and improves trading liquidity — effects that unfold over months, not days.

Whether the forced demand is enough to stem the selling pressure will become clearer in the sessions ahead. Almonty’s long-term thesis — uniting tungsten production, refining capacity, and molybdenum mining under one roof — rests on timely execution of Phase 2 and the planned tungsten oxide plant. For now, a $12.2 trillion tailwind is blowing into a stock that has already tripled over the past twelve months, but is currently giving back gains faster than many index funds can buy.

Ad

Almonty Stock: New Analysis - 29 June

Fresh Almonty information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.

Read our updated Almonty analysis...

en | CA0203981034 | TRILLION | boerse | 69655220 |