A $2.45bn Deal and a Shareholder Exit Aren’t Enough to Lift Bayer as a Supreme Court Verdict Nears
Published on 06/17/2026 at 20:39 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The tug-of-war between operational ambition and legal liability is intensifying at Bayer. While the company pushes ahead with a major acquisition and a promising stroke drug, one of its most prominent backers has quietly trimmed its stake, and the clock is ticking toward a US Supreme Court ruling that could make or break the stock.
Singapore’s Temasek, a long-standing institutional investor, lowered its voting rights in Bayer to 2.90% as of June 8, down from 4.17%. The reduction takes the sovereign wealth fund below the disclosure threshold, meaning future trades will no longer be visible to the market. Temasek offered no explanation for the move, stressing only its independence from political decisions. The timing adds to the uncertainty: a critical court judgment is expected within weeks.
That judgment, in the Durnell glyphosate case, will determine whether plaintiffs can sue over missing warning labels on Roundup products when the US Environmental Protection Agency has already deemed the chemical safe. Analysts at Berenberg and UBS put the probability of a Bayer win at roughly 60% — barely better than a coin toss. Should the company prevail, Berenberg sees the stock climbing toward €45; a defeat could send it tumbling to around €30. Despite the binary risk, Berenberg lifted its price target to €40.50, while UBS maintains a much more bullish €52 with a clear buy recommendation.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Bayer?
Beneath the legal drama, Bayer is working to strengthen its pipeline. The company is acquiring Perfuse Therapeutics for up to $2.45bn, with an immediate $300mn payment securing rights to a novel implant for eye diseases such as glaucoma — a fast-growing market. On the regulatory front, the European Medicines Agency began reviewing the stroke drug Asundexian on June 10, 2026. The treatment already enjoys accelerated review status in the US and China, and a potential US launch could come by the end of next year.
These operational bright spots, however, are shadowed by a heavy debt burden. Net debt stood at over €32.5bn at the end of March, and ongoing litigation costs continue to eat into operating profits. A legal setback in oncology added to the strain: a US court rejected Bayer’s bid to block rival Johnson & Johnson over allegedly faulty comparisons for the prostate cancer drug Nubeqa. Newly appointed CFO Judith Hartmann, who took the helm in early June, faces immense pressure to reduce leverage.
The stock itself reflects the impasse. Shares have dropped roughly 5% since the start of the year, though a 5.41% surge on the day of the Perfuse announcement brought them to €37.80 — just below the 50-day moving average of €37.92. The 200-day average sits at €36.08, a level the stock recently tested. The 52-week low of €25.09 feels distant, but the shares remain range-bound.
All eyes now turn to the Supreme Court, which is expected to deliver its verdict by the end of July. Until then, operational progress may be little more than background noise. A favorable ruling would suddenly spotlight a company with a reinvigorated pipeline and a new finance chief tasked with cleaning up the balance sheet. An adverse outcome would reset the narrative entirely, plunging Bayer back into crisis mode. For investors, July 2026 cannot come soon enough.
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