Adobe Shares Under Pressure as Rival Figma Gains Momentum
Published on 02/22/2026 at 17:10 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Adobe's stock continues to struggle, unable to reverse its downward trajectory. Closing Thursday's session at $258.61, the share price hovers near its 52-week low of $251.10. While the broader software sector faces headwinds, competitive pressure is intensifying specifically from rival Figma, which recently reported robust figures and unveiled an aggressive artificial intelligence strategy.
Wall Street's Divided Verdict
Analyst sentiment toward Adobe is notably fragmented. Among 27 covering analysts, recommendations are split: 13 advocate buying the shares, 12 suggest holding, and two advise selling. The average price target stands at $425.92, implying a potential upside of approximately 65 percent from current levels.
However, a growing sense of caution is evident. Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a "Sell" rating and a $290 target. HSBC reduced its objective from $388 to $302, while Piper Sandler downgraded the stock to "Neutral" with a $330 price target. Since mid-December, six market experts have revised their assessments downward.
Figma's Confident Outlook and Strategic Pivot
On February 19, design software specialist Figma captured market attention with a bullish forecast. The company projected 2026 revenue between $1.36 billion and $1.37 billion, surpassing analyst consensus estimates by roughly $80 million. This announcement propelled Figma's own shares upward by 14 percent.
The more significant development lies in its new monetization approach. Starting in March, Figma plans to sell AI credits. Chief Financial Officer Praveer Melwani told Reuters the company will enforce usage limits, requiring power users who exceed them to purchase add-ons. This move directly positions Figma as a competitive threat to Adobe's design software segment and demonstrates a clear path to monetizing AI features—an area where investors are keenly watching Adobe's progress.
Valuation Presents a Contrarian Case Amid Market Jitters
From its peak in February 2024, Adobe has shed about 59 percent of its market value, with a 25 percent decline recorded for 2026 alone. The stock's price-to-earnings ratio has contracted to approximately 15.5, less than half its historical range, suggesting the equity is historically inexpensive.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Adobe?
This discount exists despite seemingly solid fundamentals. Analysts expect fiscal year 2026 revenue of $26.04 billion, representing growth of 9.5 percent. Earnings per share are projected at $23.46, a 12.1 percent increase. Net margins are forecast to remain stable at 36.6 percent. Furthermore, Adobe repurchased $11.7 billion worth of its own shares during the last fiscal year.
Despite these figures, market anxiety is palpable. Options activity highlighted nervousness, with around 188,900 put contracts traded on Friday—a surge of 248 percent above the average daily volume.
Upcoming Earnings as a Critical Catalyst
All eyes are on Adobe's quarterly results, scheduled for release on March 12. This report will serve as a crucial test, revealing whether the company can stabilize growth in its Digital Media segment. More importantly, it must provide evidence that its AI features are translating into tangible revenue generation. Until then, the stock remains caught between a compelling valuation argument and persistent concerns that Adobe risks falling behind structurally in the AI era.
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