Airbus Sheds Tariff Overhang but Faces Supplier Doubts as Farnborough Looms

Airbus shares are hovering near €48.00, a level that captures the tug-of-war between a significant policy victory and nagging operational uncertainty. The stock closed Tuesday at that price, up 1.27% on the day, though it remains 2.44% lower over the past week. Investors are weighing the removal of a long-standing trade threat against persistent scepticism about the manufacturer's ability to ramp production fast enough.

The catalyst for the latest bout of relief came from Washington: the US Department of Commerce has terminated its investigation into imported commercial aircraft, engines and spare parts, concluding that while foreign goods raise national security concerns, the Trump administration will not impose additional tariffs. The decision follows intensive lobbying by America's own aerospace industry, which had already secured carve-outs for planes and components. For Airbus, the outcome removes a layer of geopolitical risk that had hung over the sector for months and helps stabilise cross-border trade in aerospace goods — at least for now.

Yet the stock has not rallied sharply. At €48.00, it sits 12.73% below its 52-week high of €55.00 set on 12 January, and 1.7% above its 200-day moving average of €47.20. The relative strength index stands at 52.1, signalling neutral momentum, while 30-day volatility of 34% is typical for the sector. Over the past month the shares are up 4.35%, but they remain 2.04% lower year-to-date, despite a 5.73% gain on a 12-month view. The distance from the March low of €38.40 is 25%.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Airbus?

The mixed price action reflects an equally mixed picture on the ground. Airbus delivered 351 aircraft in the first half of 2026, a 15% increase on the 306 handed over in the same period last year; June alone saw 89 jets leave the tarmac, up 41% year-on-year. That keeps the full-year target of roughly 870 deliveries within reach, especially given the group's typical acceleration in the second half. On the order side, the story is even stronger: gross orders of 887 aircraft produced a net tally of 822 after cancellations, swelling a backlog that now stands at around 16,000 units. The problem is turning those orders into cash.

Supply constraints remain the principal drag. Engine shortages and delivery delays to China continue to hold back production, and a recent survey indicated that only 46% of suppliers believe Airbus can achieve its planned rate of 75 A320-family aircraft per month. Any stumbles in that ramp-up would pressure margins precisely when airline customers — including Air China and Norwegian — are themselves struggling with high fuel costs and shrinking profitability. For the bears, the gap between ambition and execution is the stock's biggest vulnerability.

Optimists, however, point to the company's strategic diversification efforts. Airbus is not just building planes; it is building a European missile shield. The newly formed Bliksem EXO consortium — a joint venture with Thales, MBDA, Safran and Destinus — aims to develop a ballistic defence system, with engineering work starting in August and a space test planned for 2027. Meanwhile, the A220 programme passed the milestone of 500 deliveries in 2026, and Airbus plans to raise its monthly output to 13–14 aircraft by 2028. The hydrogen-powered future also took a step forward on 7 July with the announcement of a joint venture with MTU Aero Engines to develop a fully electric hydrogen fuel-cell propulsion system.

All of these threads will converge over the next two weeks. On 15 July, Airbus will release pre-communications on its second-quarter performance; the Farnborough Airshow runs from 20 to 22 July, where management will face pointed questions about production cadence and potential defence orders; and on 29 July, the half-year results will either confirm or undermine the company's trajectory. The ultimate test is whether Airbus can convincingly chart a course to its 2028 targets — an operating profit of €10–10.5 billion and annual deliveries of 1,000 to 1,050 jets. Until then, the shares are caught between a cleared trade hurdle and the hard reality of the supply chain.

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