Aixtron's Two-Front Dominance Drives Record Orders, but Valuation Raises Stakes
Published on 05/28/2026 at 15:24 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Aixtron is no longer just a gallium-nitride (GaN) and silicon-carbide (SiC) story. A sweeping shift in its business mix has propelled optoelectronics to the forefront, accounting for 52% of equipment revenue in the first quarter of 2026 — up from just 10% a year earlier. The transformation is being fuelled by orders from clients such as Lumentum, which has placed multiple G10-AsP system orders to expand production of indium-phosphide-based lasers and detectors for optical connectivity in AI data centres.
The company now commands over 90% of the market in two key growth segments: GaN-based systems for power distribution at AI compute nodes, and optoelectronic equipment for lasers and data-transmission components. The G10-AsP platform has become the standard for high-volume 150-mm indium-phosphide wafer production, a position Aixtron's management describes as near-unassailable.
Order intake in the first quarter reached EUR 171.4 million, up 30% year-on-year, with optoelectronics alone accounting for roughly 65% of the total. The order backlog swelled to EUR 359.1 million by the end of March, compared with EUR 257.8 million at the close of 2025 and EUR 307.9 million a year earlier. So strong is demand that Aixtron has been forced to push some large deliveries into 2027 because customers lack available production floor space. The company expects its optoelectronics revenue to more than double in 2026, with growth continuing at least through 2027.
The momentum prompted Aixtron to raise its full-year revenue guidance to around EUR 560 million from a previous EUR 520 million, plus or minus EUR 30 million. Gross margin is targeted at approximately 42%, and the EBIT margin is seen in the range of 17% to 20%. For the second quarter, management has guided for revenue of roughly EUR 110 million, plus or minus EUR 10 million, as major system shipments begin to land.
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On the flip side, the SiC equipment business — where Aixtron holds a 40% market share — remains a drag. Overcapacity in the market has kept demand subdued, and analysts do not expect a meaningful recovery before 2027, followed by a near-doubling of equipment sales the year after.
The market has rewarded the shift handsomely. Aixtron shares touched a fresh 52-week high of EUR 58.94, representing a 373% rally from the trough over the past twelve months, while the year-to-date gain stands at roughly 229%. That rally has ignited a debate about valuation. Trailing metrics show a net profit of EUR 58.2 million on revenue of EUR 503.4 million, translating into a P/E multiple of 99. On forward estimates, the price-to-earnings ratio for 2027 sits at around 43, with an EV/EBIT multiple of approximately 30 — a premium of more than three standard deviations above the long-term average on revenue.
Berenberg responded to the run-up by downgrading the stock to "Hold" from "Buy" in early May, albeit raising its 2026 and 2027 revenue estimates by 9% to 13% and EBIT forecasts by 20% to 24%. The bank set a price target of EUR 42, arguing that the supply-chain constraints in optoelectronics are now fully priced into the stock after its 195% surge since the start of the year. Aixtron's debt-free balance sheet offers some comfort, but the high valuation leaves little room for execution missteps.
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Meanwhile, the GaN side of the business continues to churn. Renesas has taken delivery of multiple G5+C systems to boost gallium-nitride component production for electric vehicles, renewable energy, and data centres. GaN demand is expected to pick up through the year, while SiC recovery remains a second-half 2026 or early 2027 story.
The next major catalyst is the half-year report in July. That will show whether the record order book translates into revenue growth and sustainable margins — or whether the valuation has already discounted too much of the monopoly story.
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