Allianz Targets Rising Repair Bills and Pension Growth as Analyst Views Stretch from €454 to €684

The Allianz share is trading within 1.2% of its 52-week peak of €425.50, set on July 10, but the analysts watching the stock are far from agreement on where it goes next. Berenberg reaffirmed its “Buy” rating on July 14 with a price target of €684, while Metzler raised its own target to €454 just three days later on July 17. That gulf of €230 reflects very different bets on which of Allianz’s businesses will drive the next leg of growth.

The more bullish call from Berenberg’s Michael Huttner hinges on Germany’s pension reform, which he argues will act as a tailwind for Allianz’s life insurance arm. He also named Generali as a beneficiary of the same regulatory shift. Metzler’s more conservative target, by contrast, suggests a narrower view of near-term upside, even as the stock closed last week at €420.40, up 0.43% on the session and 7.66% year-to-date.

While analysts debate the outlook, Allianz is waging a separate campaign to rein in costs in its motor insurance business, the largest in Germany by premium volume. The insurer is pressing the government and carmakers to allow more use of second-hand parts and to make repairs easier, pointing to a dizzying rise in component prices. A headlight that cost an average of €708 in 2015 now commands €1,251, with roughly 870,000 headlights swapped out annually in Germany alone. Other parts have followed a similar trajectory: tailgates have more than doubled in price, wings have jumped 80% and windscreens are up 50%, according to the German Insurance Association (GDV).

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Allianz?

Allianz executives Frank Sommerfeld and Christian Sahr have been vocal on the issue. Sahr pointed to a specific regulatory hurdle: in Germany, repairing scratched clear-plastic headlights is not allowed, whereas in France the same repair is routine. The company argues that lifting such restrictions would not only lower claim costs but also cut CO? emissions tied to manufacturing new components. The push aligns with broader industry discussions around circular economy, including recommendations from the expert group Transformation of the Automotive Industry (ETA) on remanufacturing and recycling.

The repair-cost offensive comes as no surprise given the direct hit rising claims costs deliver to Allianz’s underwriting results. By seeking regulatory change rather than simply passing higher costs on to policyholders, the Dax-listed insurer is trying to address the problem at its source – a move that could ultimately protect margins if it gains traction.

Separately, Allianz underlined its global reach in pensions with the latest edition of its Global Pension Report. The study ranks Sweden, Belgium and Denmark highest on sustainability and adequacy, while highlighting the Philippines as a market with catch-up potential: it placed 37th globally and seventh in Asia, constrained by the absence of a funded pillar despite a young population. The report reinforces Allianz’s role as both an observer and player in retirement provision worldwide, a business that extends beyond its core insurance operations.

For now, the stock’s market capitalisation stands at just under €159.7 billion, and with the 52-week high only a stone’s throw away, the next catalyst could come from either the political arena – if Allianz’s repair lobby succeeds – or from the pension-reform tailwind that Berenberg believes has yet to be fully priced in.

Ad

Allianz Stock: New Analysis - 18 July

Fresh Allianz information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.

Read our updated Allianz analysis...

en | DE0008404005 | ALLIANZ | boerse | 69797951 |