Almonty Faces Key Liquidity Event as Share Restrictions Expire

Almonty Industries Inc. is navigating a significant liquidity test today as lock-up provisions on a substantial block of securities issued last December lapse. Despite this potential overhang, the company's shares recently advanced more than 9% and continue to trade well above their placement price. The central question for investors is whether the market can absorb this newly tradeable supply without triggering significant selling pressure.

A fundamental shift in the company's profile is supporting investor confidence. With the commencement of commercial production at its Sangdong tungsten mine in mid-December, Almonty has transitioned from a developer to a producing company. This operational milestone is backed by a long-term offtake agreement with Sumitomo Electric Industries, effective since January 1, 2026, which provides clear revenue visibility.

The December capital raise, which concluded on the 10th of that month, grossed $129.4 million and was primarily earmarked for ramping up output at Sangdong. This strengthened financial foundation coincides with the company's new phase as an operator with contracted sales to a major Japanese industrial customer.

Details of the Unlocking

The restrictions expiring today apply to options, restricted stock units (RSUs), and common shares issued to management and partners as part of the December financing. This represents a more targeted unlocking compared to the broader release that occurred in November.

Notably, the share price currently stands approximately 57% above the $6.25 per share placement price. This premium suggests institutional investors view recent developments favorably and indicates initial market confidence in absorbing the additional liquidity.

Key lock-up details:
* Securities Unlocked: Options, RSUs, and common shares
* Placement Price: $6.25 per share
* Recent Trading Level: Approximately $9.61
* Premium to Placement: Roughly 57%

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?

Strategic Hire and Shareholder Update

Aligning with its growth stage, Almonty appointed Guillaume Wiesenbach de Lamaziere as Chief Development Officer on January 6. He joins from AIG Asset Management, bringing substantial capital markets experience to the role, which is explicitly focused on securing financing for future expansion projects, including the Montana tungsten initiative.

In a separate disclosure, Deutsche Rohstoff AG reported via an early-warning filing that its stake in Almonty has fallen below the 10% threshold. This reduction is primarily a technical result of dilution from the increased share count following the December capital increase, rather than substantial market sales. Prior to the financing, the German resource investor held about 20.4 million shares and CDIs, representing an 8.67% undiluted interest.

Record Valuation and Market Activity

Almonty's stock performance in 2025 was extraordinary, with gains exceeding 840%. The company now commands a market capitalization of approximately CAD 3.05 billion (USD 2.47 billion). Trading activity remains robust, with recent volume around 6.6 million shares against an average of roughly 2.9 million.

Analysts covering the stock on Nasdaq have a consensus price target of $11.00 per share, implying a potential upside of about 14% from current levels. Shares are trading near the top of their 52-week range of $1.38 to $10.68.

Investment Thesis Intact

The core investment narrative remains focused on Almonty's role in Western supply chains for critical minerals. The commencement of production and the secured offtake agreement provide a more predictable revenue and earnings base.

Whether the rally continues toward analyst targets will depend significantly on how the market digests the shares and options unlocked today. The next likely catalyst for the stock is expected to be operational updates from South Korea regarding the progress of the production ramp-up at the Sangdong mine.