Almonty Industries: A CFO with Wall Street DNA and Two Immovable Deadlines
Veröffentlicht: 26.06.2026 um 05:33 Uhr, Redaktion boerse-global.de
By the time Washington's ban on Chinese tungsten for defence applications takes effect on 1 January 2027, Almonty Industries will already have doubled its Sangdong mine capacity. That alignment of regulatory fiat with a production ramp is the anchor of the investment thesis — but the company is not relying on tungsten alone to win over the market.
Jorge Beristain, a former Deutsche Bank mining analyst and metals industry CFO, joins as chief financial officer effective 1 June 2026, a move that signals management is preparing for a more sophisticated capital markets narrative as it scales. Beristain most recently served as Vice President Finance at Ryerson Holding Corp, a US$5 billion metal distributor, and before that as CFO of Central Steel & Wire's US$800 million subsidiary. His earlier stint as Managing Director and head of Americas Metals & Mining equity research at Deutsche Bank Securities suggests Almonty is thinking well beyond routine bookkeeping.
Despite a 317% gain over the past twelve months and a 101% year-to-date advance, shares have pulled back 9.3% in the past week and 14% in the past month to C$24.18 — roughly 27.5% below the April peak of C$33.35. The driver of the selloff is the 4 June closing of a US$700 million convertible note issuance that triggered dilution fears. The 2.25% notes mature in 2031, and an over-allotment option added another US$100 million. Proceeds are funding capped-call transactions to limit dilution, repaying about US$50 million in existing debt, and providing working capital for the Sangdong ramp and potential acquisitions. The structure buys Almonty time to reach full production without further equity raises.
The operational numbers confirm a transition from developer to producer. In the first quarter of 2026, operating cash flow reached C$9.7 million, adjusted EBITDA swung to US$6.1 million from a US$2.4 million loss a year earlier, and the operating margin hit 31%. Sangdong's Phase 1 is now processing 640,000 tonnes of ore annually, yielding approximately 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. Phase 2, expected in 2027, will double that to 1.2 million tonnes of ore and 4,600 tonnes of concentrate — enough to meet 40% of non-Chinese global tungsten demand. The Critical Minerals Institute has placed tungsten on its top-five watchlist.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
China's stranglehold on supply is tightening. Beijing cut its 2026 mining quotas by an additional 8%, following the February 2025 export restrictions that sent Asia-Pacific tungsten prices surging 273% year-over-year. The DFARS rule means that from 1 January 2027, no Chinese, Russian, Iranian, or North Korean tungsten may enter US defence supply chains — a deadline no politician can postpone.
Almonty's secondary asset at Gentung Browns Lake in Montana is scheduled to start production in the second half of 2026, backed by a 15-year supply contract for the US defence industry. The relocation of the company's headquarters to Dillon, Montana, aligns it with federal critical-minerals programs, and analysts at Bank of America and Oppenheimer view it as a preferred supplier for government procurement.
Tungsten's physical properties make substitution nearly impossible: melting point of 3,422°C, density close to gold, and unmatched hardness for kinetic energy penetrators, drone components, and turbine engines. With the West having hollowed out its industrial know-how over decades, Almonty's CEO Lewis Black noted at the CMI Summit in May that rebuilding critical mineral supply chains requires more than money — it requires people who can build and operate mines.
Almonty at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
One overlooked factor is molybdenum. Almonty is drilling at the Sangdong molybdenum project in South Korea, where government pressure to secure domestic supply chains is intensifying due to an acute shortage. The confirmed grades align with historical results, and the company is positioning Sangdong as a multi-metal platform rather than just a tungsten mine. The molybdenum optionality is barely priced into the stock.
At current levels, with an RSI of 45.1 and annualised 30-day volatility of 92.4%, the stock is consolidating after a spectacular run. The market capitalisation stands at approximately €4.63 billion — a bet on the tungsten supply gap, not current earnings. But with two hard deadlines — 1 January 2027 for defence procurement and Phase 2 commissioning in the same year — the path to that valuation becoming reality is increasingly defined by fixed dates, not hope.
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