Almonty Industries: A Rare Disconnect Between Index Flows and a Looming Tungsten Wall

For a company that produces the hardest metal on earth, the stock has been anything but hard to knock off its perch. Almonty Industries shares have shed roughly 11% over the past seven trading sessions, closing at C$23.62 — a 29% retreat from the April 2026 peak of C$33.35. Yet this sell-off arrives just days before what would normally be an unequivocal bullish event: entry into the Russell 1000 and Russell 3000 indexes on June 30.

The timing exposes a tension between short-term market mechanics and a structural commodity thesis that has few parallels in the mining sector. Passive funds tracking the Russell benchmarks must buy the stock regardless of price, a forced inflow that should broaden the shareholder base and improve liquidity. But the market has chosen to focus elsewhere — on profit-taking after a 332% rally over twelve months, or on the realpolitik of tungsten supply chains that is still playing out on a multi-year horizon.

That longer view is anchored to one fixed date: January 1, 2027. On that day, Washington’s ban on sourcing tungsten for defence applications from China, Russia, Iran and North Korea takes full effect. Almonty, through its Sangdong mine in South Korea and the Gentung Browns Lake project in Montana, is the only meaningful Western producer already in production. The company’s CEO, Lewis Black, told the CMI Summit in May that rebuilding critical mineral supply chains requires not just money but industrial know-how that the West let atrophy for decades.

Sangdong is the cornerstone. With an expected mine life exceeding 45 years and an average ore grade of 0.51% tungsten trioxide — roughly three times the global average — its Phase 1 began processing around 640,000 tonnes of ore annually in March 2026, yielding about 2,300 tonnes of concentrate. Phase 2, due to start in 2027, will double capacity to 1.2 million tonnes and 4,600 tonnes of concentrate. At full output, the mine could supply roughly 40% of the tungsten demand from outside China.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?

Meanwhile, China’s export restrictions, imposed in February 2025 under national security grounds, have already reshaped pricing. The Asia-Pacific volume-weighted average price for 99.9% tungsten surged roughly 273% from April 2025 to April 2026. The country controls over 80% of global production and has deliberately tightened access for Western buyers, a move the Critical Minerals Institute ranks among its top five strategic metal concerns.

Almonty’s balance sheet now reflects the transition from development to operation. In the first quarter of 2026, operating cash flow reached C$9.7 million, and adjusted EBITDA swung to US$6.1 million from a loss of US$2.4 million in the year-ago period. The operating margin came in at 31%. To fund the expansion, the company placed a heavily oversubscribed US$700 million convertible note early in June, which after exercise of the full greenshoe netted approximately US$772.7 million. The coupon is 2.25%, maturity 2031, and the conversion price of around US$27.40 per share sits above the current trading level.

Going forward, a second revenue stream is taking shape. Mid-June drilling results confirmed molybdenum deposits at Sangdong consistent with historical resource grades, adding a metal that is both a critical input for high-strength steel alloys and eligible for US defence stockpile programmes. The relocation of Almonty’s corporate headquarters to Dillon, Montana, further ties the company to federal critical-mineral incentives. Analysts at Bank of America and Oppenheimer have flagged Almonty as a preferred counterparty for government procurement decisions.

The stock’s 52-week high of C$33.35 came just before the recent pullback. With a relative strength index of 43.0 — technically neutral and not oversold — the move lower looks like a consolidation after an extraordinary run. Year to date, the shares are still up around 96%, and the market capitalisation stands at roughly €4.63 billion. That valuation is a bet on the tungsten bottleneck, not on the current earnings profile.

Almonty at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

For investors weighing the index-induced buying against the 2027 supply deadline, the gap between the stock price and the conversion price of the convertible is one measure of how much uncertainty remains. Another is the US election cycle, which could accelerate or delay military procurement. But political timelines are elastic; the physical properties of tungsten are not. Melting at 3,422°C and dense enough to rival gold, it remains irreplaceable in kinetic penetrators, drone components and turbine engines — all of which the West needs to manufacture at scale again.

Almonty’s story over the next twelve months will be a contest between two forces: the structural tightening of a metal that has no substitute, and the market’s tendency to discount that fact until the deadline gets uncomfortably close. Next week’s index inclusion provides a liquidity floor. The question is whether the stock can climb back toward its conversion price before the forced buyers arrive — or whether the real catalyst is still two years away.

Ad

Almonty Stock: New Analysis - 26 June

Fresh Almonty information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.

Read our updated Almonty analysis...

en | CA0203981034 | ALMONTY | boerse | 69629604 |