Almonty Industries: Behind the 8.6% Russell-Fueled Rally, a Tungsten Powerhouse at an Inflection Point

The run-up to Almonty Industries’ index membership has been electric — the tungsten miner’s Australian-listed depositary receipts closed Friday at 28.79 AUD, up 3.45% on the day and 8.6% for the week. But with the relative strength index screaming at 98.6, the question is less about near-term momentum and more about what happens when the rebalancing dust settles.

Index Inclusion as Institutional Magnet

The company is set to join the Russell 1000 and Russell 3000 at the end of June, a move announced via FTSE Russell’s preliminary list and published Friday morning on the ASX. The inclusion is no mere decoration. Almonty itself pegged the assets tied to Russell US indices at roughly $12.2 trillion as of late June 2025. For passive fund managers, that means automatic buying pressure once the change takes effect — structural demand independent of operational headlines.

The listing also follows Almonty’s relocation of its headquarters to the United States, a step CEO Lewis Black described as a validation of the company’s financial trajectory.

Sangdong Drives the Operating Story

Beneath the index fantasy lies a production ramp that is rapidly reshaping the company’s earnings profile. The flagship Sangdong mine in South Korea — one of the largest tungsten sources outside China — is now in Phase 1, churning out roughly 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate annually. Phase 2, scheduled for completion in 2027, will double that capacity.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty IndustriesDRC?

The financials reflect this acceleration. Almonty posted first-quarter revenue of C$25.4 million, a 221% leap from the prior year, while adjusted EBITDA swung to positive C$6.1 million. Operating cash flow reached US$9.7 million and cash on hand stood at about US$260 million. In a separate disclosure, the company reported US$18.52 million in revenue that exceeded analyst forecasts by roughly $3 million.

Tungsten Demand Tightens as Geopolitics and Tech Converge

The rally is not just about index mechanics. Global tungsten supply remains constrained, while demand from defense, artificial intelligence and electric-vehicle battery production continues to climb. Almonty’s position as a conflict-free supplier outside China gives it a strategic edge that is drawing growing institutional attention — and the Russell inclusion only amplifies that visibility.

Analysts have assigned the stock a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy," with a median price target of US$18.38.

Chart Signals a Need for Caution

Still, the technical picture is near boiling point. The RSI of 98.6 signals extreme overbought conditions, and the stock now trades roughly 72% above its 200-day moving average of 16.76 AUD. Since the start of the year, shares have surged 117%, and over twelve months the gain swells to more than 560%.

Almonty IndustriesDRC at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

The next major resistance sits at the 52-week high of 32.51 AUD, about 11% above current levels. On the downside, the 28.19 AUD area offers initial support — a pullback to that zone after an index-driven rally would be nothing unusual.

The coming days will reveal whether the end-of-June rebalancing brings fresh institutional inflows or if the news has already been priced in, opening the door to profit-taking. For now, the momentum is unmistakable — but so is the heat.

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