Almonty Industries: Correction Meets Catalyst as Russell Entry, Molybdenum Progress, and a Pentagon Deadline Collide
28.06.2026 - 21:53:26 | boerse-global.de
A curious tension hangs over Almonty Industries as Monday’s opening bell approaches. The stock enters the Russell 1000 and Russell 3000 indices, forcing passive funds to load up on shares — but it does so nursing a nasty correction. On Friday the equity closed at C$23.00, shedding nearly 14% over the week and pushing it well below its 50-day moving average. The gap from April’s high has now widened to more than 30%.
Yet the longer view tells a different story. Over the past twelve months the miner has clocked a 296% gain, and its 200-day moving average at C$18.04 still provides a comfortable cushion. The relative strength index, meanwhile, has not yet slipped into oversold territory, suggesting the pullback may be corrective rather than a trend reversal.
Index rebalancing will force a wave of institutional buying at Monday’s open. The mechanism is mechanical, not fundamental. But the stock’s recent weakness has created an entry point for funds that must replicate the new Russell composition. Whether the C$23.00 level holds as support will determine if the downtrend can break.
Molybdenum Drilling Hits a New Milestone
Beyond the index machinations, Almonty’s operational machine is humming. At the Sangdong site in South Korea, a 26-hole molybdenum drilling campaign has now reached 37% completion, with early results confirming historical-grade mineralisation. The company has already secured a buyer for all future output: local processor SeAH M&S has signed an offtake agreement with a floor price of US$19 per pound, insulating Almonty from any price slump.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
The timing is fortunate. Spot molybdenum prices rose nearly 24% over the past year, and South Korea’s government has been urging private enterprises to stockpile strategic metals. Almonty expects first molybdenum production by the end of 2026.
Tungsten: The Pentagon’s Long Shadow
Molybdenum is the new second pillar, but tungsten remains Almonty’s bedrock — and a geopolitical clock is ticking. From January 2027, the US Department of Defense will ban Chinese tungsten from weapons components. That has sent western contractors scrambling for alternative sources. China has tightened its own grip, allowing only 15 companies to export the metal going forward.
North American tungsten prices surged 76% in the first quarter of 2026 alone. Almonty’s Sangdong mine is positioning itself as a key western supplier. Phase 1 is already running, processing 640,000 tonnes of ore annually into 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. Phase 2, planned for 2027, will double that capacity. Management calls the strategy the “Korean Trinity” — a fully integrated value chain for critical minerals based in South Korea.
Almonty at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Strong Quarter, Cash-Rich Position
The expansion plans rest on solid financial ground. In the first quarter of 2026, Almonty posted revenue of US$25.4 million, a 221% year-on-year surge. Adjusted EBITDA came in at US$6.1 million, and operating cash flow reached US$9.7 million. A net loss of US$5.3 million was recorded, but that was almost entirely due to non-cash valuation charges linked to the soaring share price. The company ended March with roughly US$260 million in cash.
With Monday’s forced buying, the immediate question is technical. If the stock holds near C$23, the recent slide may run its course. Beyond that, the market will pivot to the remaining drill results from Sangdong, which will ultimately determine the final mine plan and the timeline for the molybdenum project. The confluence of a Russell debut, a drilling update, and a Pentagon-imposed deadline makes the next few weeks unusually eventful for a company already accustomed to double-digit swings.
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