Almonty Industries: Pentagon Deadline and Russell Inflow Fuel Tungsten Rally, but RSI at 98.6 Warns of Exhaustion

The tungsten market is undergoing a structural realignment, and Almonty Industries has positioned itself at the center of the shift. A new U.S. defense procurement rule, set to take effect in January 2027, will ban the use of tungsten sourced from China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea in American military supply chains. Given that China controls roughly 80% of global tungsten output, defense contractors and high-tech manufacturers face an urgent need for alternative supplies. Almonty, with mines in South Korea and Portugal and a newly relocated head office in Dillon, Montana, is emerging as a primary beneficiary.

That strategic narrative has been supercharged by a recent catalyst: Almonty’s addition to the Russell 1000 and Russell 3000 indexes. Passive funds tracking these benchmarks are now structurally compelled to buy the stock, creating persistent demand independent of short-term sentiment. The market responded swiftly — shares closed last Friday at A$28.75, up 3.31% on the session and 8.45% for the week. The year-to-date gain stands at a blistering 117.15%, while the twelve-month return reaches 563.21%.

The financials are beginning to support the story beyond sentiment. In the first quarter of 2026, Almonty reported revenue of C$25.4 million, a 221% surge from the prior-year period. Adjusted EBITDA swung to a positive C$6.1 million, versus a loss in the same quarter a year ago. The operational improvement is anchored by two assets: the Sangdong mine in South Korea, where first-phase production commenced in early 2026, and the Panasqueira mine in Portugal, which is already delivering tungsten concentrate to international markets. Sangdong, with an annual processing capacity of 1.2 million tonnes of ore, is among the largest and highest-grade tungsten deposits outside China.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty IndustriesDRC?

Alliance Global recently lifted its price target on the stock to US$26.25 from US$19.25, while B. Riley and Oppenheimer set targets at US$23 and US$19, respectively. The consensus direction is bullish, but analysts also acknowledge that the equity has run well ahead of near-term fundamentals. The relative strength index stands at 98.6, deep in overbought territory. Shares trade 71.51% above their 200-day moving average of A$16.76, a sign of extreme momentum — and potential fragility. The annualized 30-day volatility of 69.76% underscores the stock’s hair-trigger nature.

The current price is 11.57% below the 52-week high of A$32.51 touched in April 2026. That residual gap reflects both the lingering euphoria and a degree of caution: at these levels, any disappointment on production ramp or margin delivery could trigger a sharp correction. The tungsten price itself has rallied roughly 800% over the past 18 months, with ammonium paratungstate in Rotterdam recently quoted at approximately US$3,185 per metric ton unit. That tailwind is powerful, but it also raises the question of how much further upside is left.

Management is scheduled to meet institutional investors at an Oppenheimer conference in June, where the focus will be on the Sangdong ramp and the strategic rationale behind the Montana headquarters. The DFARS rule still has more than half a year before it becomes binding, but Almonty must prove it can convert regulatory tailwinds into reliable volumes and sustainable margins. For now, the stock has priced in a great deal of optimism — the test will be whether operations can keep pace with the narrative.

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Almonty IndustriesDRC Stock: New Analysis - 30 May

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