Almonty Industries: The Forced Buyers Are Coming — And the Stock Just Dropped 14%

In a market where a 14% monthly sell-off normally signals trouble, Almonty Industries is about to experience something counterintuitive: a wave of mandatory buying. The tungsten and molybdenum producer enters the Russell 1000 and Russell 3000 on June 29, triggering automatic purchases from the passive funds and ETFs that collectively manage trillions. The recent slide in its share price — a 14.04% decline over the past 30 days — only makes the forced inflow more notable. Wall Street’s biggest money managers will have to accumulate shares at a discount they did not choose.

That mechanical demand comes on the heels of the company’s largest-ever capital raise. An oversubscribed convertible bond closed on June 9, netting $772.7 million at a coupon of just 2.25%. The conversion price sits at roughly $27.40 per share, a level that now looks distant after the pullback, but the cash itself is already fungible: it is earmarked for working capital, debt restructuring, and the full ramp of the Sangdong mine in South Korea.

Sangdong, which began commercial production in March 2026 after more than three decades of dormancy, is the centrepiece of Almonty’s transformation. The first phase is now processing about 640,000 tonnes of ore annually, targeting 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate per year. At full capacity that figure doubles to 4,600 tonnes — enough to cover roughly 40% of all non-Chinese tungsten demand. Even at current output, the financial impact is visible: first-quarter revenue jumped to 25.4 million Canadian dollars, a 221% increase year-on-year, and operating cash flow reached 9.7 million Canadian dollars.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?

The operational story extends beyond tungsten. Drill programmes at Sangdong have confirmed significant molybdenum deposits, a metal critical to semiconductors and aerospace. South Korea currently imports molybdenum in large volumes, making Almonty’s dual-metal strategy a direct play on the country’s drive for resource sovereignty. Management has accelerated molybdenum production planning, and the combination of two strategic minerals under one roof is drawing attention from institutional buyers who previously ignored the stock.

Geopolitical tailwinds add further momentum. The U.S. Department of Defense is preparing to ban tungsten products from adversary nations starting in early 2027, leaving Western buyers with a shrinking pool of qualified suppliers. Almonty has already moved its corporate headquarters to Dillon, Montana, and purchased the nearby Gentung tungsten project, which is expected to reach production readiness in the second half of 2026. The appointment of Jorge Beristain, a former Wall Street metals analyst, as chief financial officer signals the company intends to play by American capital-market rules.

None of this means the path is smooth. The stock’s annualised volatility stands at 92.40%, reflecting genuine uncertainty about execution. The convertible, while cheap to service, carries dilution risk at current conversion levels. And the full ramp to 4,600 tonnes of concentrate per year remains a multi-year challenge; large mining projects routinely suffer cost overruns and delays. On the U.S. front, permitting processes for Gentung could stall. Falling tungsten prices would also compress margins, though prices have remained elevated due to structural supply tightness.

The index inclusion ends the era in which Almonty could fly under the radar of major sell-side analysts. Passive fund managers no longer have a choice — they must hold the stock. The market’s focus now shifts from whether the mine can be built to how efficiently it can be run. In a world hungry for non-Chinese critical minerals, that transition from optionality to obligation may be the most powerful catalyst of all.

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Almonty Stock: New Analysis - 26 June

Fresh Almonty information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.

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