Almonty’s Insider Selling Spree Reaches $227 Million as Tungsten Rally Fails to Halt Stock’s Slide

Tungsten prices have nearly octupled over the past year, yet Almonty Industries’ share price is heading in the opposite direction — and company insiders have been bailing out in record numbers. The disconnect between a red-hot commodity market and a tumbling equity has rarely been starker.

The stock shed 12.3 percent on Wednesday, closing at C$19.46 after opening at C$22.19. That marked the third consecutive losing session. The sell-off began earlier in the week, when the Nasdaq-listed shares dropped 9.6 percent on Monday, swinging between US$14.68 and US$16.26 in a single day. Analysts traced the initial wave of selling to heightened geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, which pushed oil prices higher and knocked technology stocks broadly lower. US President Donald Trump’s threat to block Iranian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz added fuel to the fire.

The technical damage has been significant. Almonty now trades roughly 22 percent below its 50-day moving average of C$24.98 and well under the 100-day average of C$25.42. Only the 200-day line at C$18.87 provides a floor, with the current price sitting about 3 percent above it. The 14-day relative strength index stands at 37.2, indicating an oversold condition but not yet outright capitulation. Meanwhile, the annualized 30-day volatility has surged past 103 percent, underscoring extreme trader nervousness. One quantitative research service has already downgraded its near-term outlook from “Hold” to “Sell,” citing a broad and deteriorating trend.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?

Inside the company, the selling has been relentless. A director offloaded 200,000 shares on July 2 at US$24.07, reducing his stake by 7.4 percent in a single transaction worth US$4.81 million. That sale is just the visible tip. Over the past 90 days, net insider sales have reached US$227.6 million, with executives accounting for US$75.1 million. Notable sellers include Michael Lewis Black and Daniel D’Amato, and additional disposals by affiliated parties have been announced. The insider exodus casts a shadow over management’s public confidence in the stock.

Wall Street analysts, however, remain mostly bullish. On the same day as the latest plunge, DA Davidson reaffirmed its “Buy” rating and lifted its price target from US$25 to US$33. B. Riley Financial raised its target from US$17 to US$23 in March, while Oppenheimer set a US$25 target with an “Outperform” call. Texas Capital upgraded the stock to “Strong Buy” in April. The lone dissenter is Weiss Ratings, which maintains a “Sell (D-).” The consensus, according to MarketBeat, is a “Moderate Buy” with an average price target of US$21.88 — above current levels but well below the stock’s 52-week peak of C$33.35, hit on April 17.

Behind the analyst optimism lies a genuine transformation in Almonty’s operations. The company has started processing stockpiled ore through a newly commissioned beneficiation plant at the Sangdong mine in South Korea’s Gangwon province, producing saleable tungsten concentrate. Ammonium paratungstate, the key tungsten intermediate, has rocketed from around US$331 per metric tonne unit in early 2025 to nearly US$1,900 by February 2026 — a roughly eightfold surge that has left gold and oil in the dust. Western militaries, consuming more tungsten-based ammunition as the Ukraine war persists and Middle East tensions escalate, are the primary demand driver.

This structural tailwind has not insulated the stock from violent swings. Profit-taking and geopolitical headlines have repeatedly overwhelmed the long-term thesis in daily trading. With the shares still 41.65 percent below their record high and volatility above 100 percent annualized, the market is juggling two competing narratives: the operational ramp-up at Sangdong and a macro environment where critical minerals have become a geopolitical flashpoint. Whether the current slide is a healthy correction or the beginning of a deeper repricing depends on how quickly the Middle East cools — and how fast South Korean ore turns into revenue that justifies the rich valuation.

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