Almonty’s Korean Trinity Nears Its First Milestone as Washington’s 2027 Deadline Looms
23.06.2026 - 09:41:29 | boerse-global.de
South Korea imports roughly 90 percent of its molybdenum from China — a strategic vulnerability that Almonty Industries is betting it can turn into a competitive advantage. The company’s Sangdong mine in Yeongwol County, already producing tungsten, now hosts a fast-tracked molybdenum exploration campaign designed to transform the site into a multi-mineral hub. At 37 percent complete, the drilling program has punched 26 holes and advanced a total of 12 kilometres of tunnel, confirming grades that align with historical data. If the remaining 63 percent holds, the resource base could support more than six decades of extraction.
The timing is anything but coincidental. US defence procurement mandates are set to tighten supply chains in 2027, and Almonty is positioning Sangdong as an “Allied Supplier” of tungsten, molybdenum, and downstream tungsten oxide — a combination the company internally calls the “Korean Trinity.” The tungsten side of the operation only started commercial production on 16 March 2026, with the processing plant designed to handle 640,000 tonnes of ore annually. First-quarter revenue jumped 221 percent year-on-year to $25.4 million, propelled by tungsten prices of $2,250 per metric tonne unit. Molybdenum spot prices have also rallied, gaining roughly 23.5 percent over the past year to 592.34 CNY per kilogram.
To fund the next leg, Almonty recently placed a convertible bond worth $700 million that was heavily oversubscribed. Together with cash on hand of $259.9 million as of 31 March 2026, the company appears well-capitalised for the Phase 2 expansion that aims to double processing capacity to 1.2 million tonnes per year. That expansion is the linchpin of the bull case: analysts at Simply Wall St peg the fair value of the stock at 57.50 Canadian dollars using a DCF model, more than double the current share price of roughly 27 CAD. Year-to-date the equity has already surged 124 percent, and over twelve months the gain reaches 460 percent.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
Yet the risks are substantial. Almonty recorded a net loss of approximately 132 million Canadian dollars against revenue of only 50 million CAD, and profits are not expected for another three years. The annualised volatility of the stock stands at an extreme 97 percent, making it vulnerable to sharp corrections — the shares currently trade about 19 percent below their 52-week high of 33.35 CAD. On the operational front, the remaining 63 percent of the molybdenum drilling programme could still deliver geological surprises, and the nascent tungsten mine faces normal ramp-up risks. Delays in throughput optimisation would pressure the balance sheet, especially given the $700 million in debt service that comes with the new convertible notes.
Management is also navigating organisational changes. Almonty relocated its headquarters to Dillon, Montana in April 2026, and a new chief financial officer took over on 1 June. Those moves tie up bandwidth at a time when the company must coordinate mining operations across multiple countries and push the Korean Trinity toward certification.
Two near-term catalysts could shift sentiment. On 29 June 2026, Almonty is scheduled to join the Russell 1000 and Russell 3000 indices, a move that typically triggers institutional inflows. On the technical side, the stock is wrestling with its 50-day moving average near 27.25 CAD. A clean break above resistance at 27.50 CAD opens the path to 35 CAD; failure could see a retest of the 200-day line at 17.70 CAD, especially if the broader commodity cycle turns defensive.
The next batch of drilling results will be the most telling. So long as they continue to match the historical grades, the Korean Trinity narrative remains intact. Any deviation, however, would undercut the entire diversification thesis — and with the Pentagon’s 2027 deadline only months away, Almonty has no room for surprises.
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