Almonty's Rally Meets Reality: Shareholders Vote on Sangdong Doubling

If there is one stock that has captured the speculative fever in the critical-minerals space, it is Almonty Industries. The tungsten producer has seen its shares surge roughly 560% over the past twelve months in Toronto, closing at C$27.34 on Friday despite a 4.44% daily dip. But with the relative strength index touching 91.2—deep in overbought territory—the question now is whether the fundamental catalysts can catch up to the price.

A string of events in June will provide the answer. On June 1, Jorge Beristain officially took over as chief financial officer, replacing Brian Fox after an interim stint by chief development officer Guillaume de Lamaziere. Beristain, a former Deutsche Bank metals and mining analyst who previously served as VP of Finance at Ryerson Holding and sits on the board of Elevra Lithium, brings capital-markets expertise that will be critical as the company scales up its South Korean Sangdong mine. Eight days later, on June 9, shareholders will vote on Phase 2 of the mine’s expansion—a plan to double capacity to 1.2 million tonnes per year by 2027.

That timeline is no coincidence. Under the US defense procurement rule DFARS 252.225-7052, contractors will be prohibited from using tungsten sourced from China or Russia starting January 2027. China currently controls over 80% of global tungsten output, and the price of ammonium paratungstate (APT) in Rotterdam has exploded roughly 900% over the past twelve months to around $3,185 per metric tonne unit. Almonty’s Sangdong mine, if expanded, would supply approximately 40% of all tungsten demand outside China—a position that could command a significant pricing premium.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?

The company’s financial health provides some assurance that the expansion is more than just a speculative thesis. First-quarter revenue jumped 221% to $25.4 million, driven by higher spot APT prices and steady operations at the Panasqueira mine in Portugal. Net loss narrowed sharply from $34.6 million to $5.3 million, benefiting from non-cash valuation effects tied to the rising share price. More importantly, Almonty generated positive operating cash flow of $9.7 million, a stark reversal from negative $4.4 million a year earlier. The balance sheet shows $259.9 million in cash and $169.5 million in working capital.

Beyond Sangdong, Almonty is advancing the Gentung-Browns Lake project in Montana—the first new US tungsten mine since 2015—with production slated to begin in the second half of 2026. And on June 29, the company will be added to both the Russell 1000 and Russell 3000 indices following the annual reconstitution. Passive funds that track these benchmarks will be forced to buy Almonty shares, potentially adding institutional visibility and demand just as the company enters its most capital-intensive phase.

Beristain’s appointment comes at a moment when tight financial controls are essential. The share price has already rallied 127% year-to-date, and at C$27.34 it sits just 15% below the 52-week high of C$32.07. The vote on June 9 will determine whether the next leg of growth is backed by a material increase in capacity—or whether the stock has simply run ahead of itself.

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