Almonty Strikes Production and Prepares for Nasdaq Alone — The Chart Sends a Sobering Counterpoint
Published on 07/19/2026 at 11:32 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Almonty Industries has begun processing ore at its Sangdong mine in South Korea, marking the tungsten developer's transition from explorer to producer less than a month before it voluntarily exits the Toronto Stock Exchange. The dual milestones — first concentrate on July 1 and the planned TSX delisting effective July 31 — frame a stock that has more than tripled over the past year yet sits 42% below its April peak.
The company's decision to concentrate trading on the Nasdaq, where the bulk of volume already flows, coincides with an operational ramp-up that investors have been waiting years to see. Sangdong began using a 139,700-tonne ore stockpile to produce saleable tungsten concentrate, and the expansion of a long-term offtake contract on July 14 added ballast to the revenue outlook. Global Tungsten & Powders extended its Phase I volume commitment from 15 to 21 years and boosted volumes by 40%, to 4.41 million MTU. At current tungsten prices, that implies annual revenue of roughly $490 million.
That figure is a floor, not a ceiling, since Phase II — which would roughly double processing capacity — remains unbuilt and uncontracted. Almonty's other assets are also excluded. Yet the market has already begun discounting those future layers, contributing to a market capitalisation of roughly €3.27 billion for a company that only became a seller of tungsten a few weeks ago.
The disconnect between the long-term narrative and the near-term price action is stark. The stock closed at C$19.25 on Friday, up nearly 4% on the day, but that masked a weekly loss of 17.66% and a monthly decline of 25.45%. From the 52-week high of C$33.35 struck on April 17, the shares have surrendered 42% of their value. The 50-day and 100-day moving averages — at C$24.61 and C$25.36, respectively — both sit well above the current quote, underscoring how abruptly sentiment has cooled.
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That brings the 200-day moving average of C$18.96 into focus. The stock is trading just 1.53% above this line, which has condensed a full year of market mood swings — IPO euphoria, construction delays, the production start, and the contract expansion — into a single technical boundary. A break below it would shift the outlook toward the psychological support zones established in 2025, while a hold could set the stage for a recovery toward the 50-day mark.
Volatility remains extreme. The 30-day annualised reading of 84.97% places Almonty among the most nervous names in the resources sector. The relative strength index of 38.1 suggests oversold territory but does not yet confirm a bottom. Meanwhile, the price-to-earnings multiple of 15.6 stands far above the industry average of 2.5, a premium that relies heavily on the assumption that Sangdong's ramp proceeds without further snags.
Analysts at Oppenheimer and Alliance Global have maintained positive ratings with 12-month targets of $25 and $26.25 per share, respectively, in US dollars. On a 12-month view, the stock has gained 209.49%, and it is still up 59.49% year-to-date. The set-up rewards those who see the 42% drawdown from the high as an entry point rather than a warning.
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The broader backdrop adds a geopolitical layer. Tungsten prices have surged more than 160% in 2025 and continued to climb into early 2026, with China controlling over 75% of global refining capacity and repeatedly tightening export controls. The International Energy Agency notes that tungsten prices have sextupled in recent years. Almonty relocated its headquarters from Toronto to Dillon, Montana, explicitly positioning itself as a Western supply-chain alternative for a metal deemed critical for defence stocks.
For the stock to defend the 200-day moving average and eventually narrow the gap to its 50-day counterpart, the market needs to see Sangdong's now-secured contracts convert into steady, unglamorous cash flow. The TSX delisting on July 31 will test whether liquidity can shift seamlessly to the Nasdaq without leaving Canadian retail holders stranded. Short-term, the 200-day line is the line in the sand. Long-term, the tungsten super-cycle argument remains intact — but the share price must prove it can hold its ground while the mine proves it can run.
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