Almonty Turns Cash Flow Positive as Tungsten Prices Triple, With Sangdong Expansion Vote on the Horizon

The tungsten market's relentless rally is reshaping the financial profile of Almonty Industries. The miner swung to a positive operating cash flow of $9.7 million in the first quarter of 2026, a sharp reversal from the negative position a year earlier, as revenue exploded 221% to $25.4 million. The surge was fueled by both higher spot prices for the strategic metal and robust output from its Panasqueira mine in Portugal.

Adjusted EBITDA also turned positive at $6.1 million, though the bottom line showed a net loss of $5.3 million. That red ink stemmed largely from non-cash accounting write-downs of $8.4 million. With cash reserves of approximately $260 million, the company's liquidity position remains comfortable as it pursues an aggressive growth agenda spanning two continents.

The share price, however, has taken a breather after a breathtaking run. Almonty's stock closed at C$24.17 on Friday, down 4.09% on the day and 16.19% over the past 30 days. That pullback still leaves the shares up 100.91% year-to-date and an eye-popping 549.73% over the past twelve months. The recent correction appears to be profit-taking after the stock hit a 52-week high in April, with the current price roughly 24% below that peak.

Diamond Equity Research has raised its earnings forecasts for the company, now projecting 2026 EPS of $0.72 (up from $0.63) and 2027 EPS of $1.68 (up from $1.43). The note was commissioned by Almonty, which adds context but does not automatically undermine its directional signal. The true catalyst behind the upgraded estimates is the trajectory of tungsten prices: ammonium paratungstate (APT) has surged from an average mid-price of around $862.50 per metric ton unit at the start of January to roughly $3,140 per MTU by early May — a more than threefold increase driven by Chinese export restrictions and Western governments scrambling to secure critical mineral supply chains.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?

Sangdong: from decades of dormancy to expansion vote

The most immediate operational milestone comes on June 8, when shareholders will vote on the second expansion phase of the Sangdong mine in South Korea. The site, which Almonty officially brought back into commercial production in mid-March after more than 30 years of inactivity, is one of the world's largest tungsten deposits. The first phase targets 640,000 tonnes of ore per year, yielding around 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate at a grade of roughly 0.51% tungsten trioxide — about three times the global average. The expansion would lift annual processing capacity to 1.2 million tonnes, with completion slated for 2027, positioning Sangdong as one of the largest tungsten operations outside China.

CEO Lewis Black used appearances at the BofA Securities Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference and the Critical Minerals Forum in Miami this week to underscore the metal's strategic importance. The message is amplified by the political backdrop: proposed U.S. procurement rules would exclude tungsten from China, Russia and North Korea from defense contracts starting in 2027, creating a premium for Western-sourced supply.

Montana adds a domestic dimension

Alongside Sangdong, Almonty's Gentung project in Montana is gaining traction. The company holds exclusive exploration and development rights over the Gentung corridor, with potential production readiness targeted for the second half of 2026. Initial plans envisage output of roughly 140,000 MTU per year. That matters because the United States has not mined its own tungsten since 2015, and the new headquarters relocation from Toronto to Dillon, Montana — announced alongside the Q1 results — puts management closer to both the project and key defense-industry partners.

Almonty at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

The combination of record tungsten prices, a newly cash-flow-positive base business, and two development projects aimed at filling the Western supply gap gives Almonty plenty of storylines. The upcoming shareholder vote will be the first real test of whether the market is willing to fund the next leg of growth — or if the recent pullback signals that much of the good news is already priced in.

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