AMD’s Helios Launch and $5 Billion Anthropic Deal Set the Stage for a Make-or-Break Earnings Report
Published on 07/24/2026 at 07:32 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Advanced Micro Devices used its Advancing AI 2026 conference in San Francisco to unveil a sweeping product offensive and a blockbuster partnership with Anthropic, yet the stock closed lower on the day of the announcements. The 2.51% decline to €471.80 on July 23 was attributed by market observers to broad weakness in the semiconductor sector rather than any disappointment with the news itself, and the shares have still gained nearly 9% on a weekly basis. With the company’s quarterly report due on August 4, the tension between a packed product pipeline and a stock that has already rallied 157.74% year-to-date is coming into sharp focus.
The centerpiece of the event was Helios, AMD’s second-generation AI rack platform, which is already in full production with deliveries slated to begin by the end of the third quarter. Each Helios system pairs 72 Instinct MI455X graphics processors with sixth-generation EPYC “Venice” CPUs and Pensando networking technology. The MI455X chip packs 432 gigabytes of HBM4 memory and delivers 23.3 terabytes per second of bandwidth, enabling what AMD claims is up to 34 times higher token throughput than its predecessor. The full system achieves 2.9 exaflops of FP4 compute and 31 terabytes of HBM4 memory. Independent testing by The Register confirmed a real-world throughput of roughly 20 petaflops in FP4 format, about half the theoretical peak.
AMD positioned Helios directly against Nvidia’s Vera Rubin NVL72, claiming 15% more AI compute, 50% more memory capacity, 50% higher scale-out bandwidth, and up to 30% more tokens per dollar invested. The company also launched the EPYC 9006 series with up to 256 cores, which Tom’s Hardware reported is up to 3.4 times faster than comparable Intel Xeon processors and roughly 20% more powerful than Nvidia’s Vera CPU.
The most consequential announcement, however, was a strategic partnership with Anthropic that goes far beyond a standard customer-supplier relationship. AMD is investing up to $5 billion in the AI company and will supply up to two gigawatts of MI450 graphics processors in Helios systems, with the first gigawatt coming online in the first half of 2027. Anthropic’s chatbot Claude will help optimize AMD’s ROCm software platform, while AMD will use Claude internally for its own software development. Anthropic CTO Tom Brown called Helios an “amazing platform.”
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Beyond the Anthropic deal, AMD confirmed that Meta and OpenAI have each committed to six gigawatts of Instinct graphics processors. OpenAI plans to deploy Helios in the fourth quarter of 2026, while Microsoft will expand its Azure cloud with the new systems. Oracle placed an order for 50,000 MI450 chips. AMD also announced a technical partnership with Cerebras, combining Helios racks with Cerebras’ wafer-scale engine to deliver up to five times higher token yield per watt for AI inference, available through the Cerebras Cloud in the second half of 2026.
Despite the torrent of positive news, the stock’s reaction highlighted a familiar pattern: the roadmap is now clear, and the market wants to see revenue. At €474.30, the shares are trading just 0.4% below the average analyst price target of €476.41, leaving little room for disappointment. Benchmark analysts raised their target from $485 to $685 with a buy rating, citing the expanded Microsoft Azure roadmap and the Anthropic deal. Wedbush analysts called the Microsoft deal the start of a “sharp AI ramp” but cautioned that it alone doesn’t justify entry at current levels.
The core question for AMD going forward is no longer about demand. Partnerships with Anthropic, Microsoft, Meta, OpenAI, and Oracle make clear that customers are lined up. The decisive factor is whether AMD can rapidly improve its non-GAAP gross margins, which trail the industry leader by roughly 20 percentage points. If the MI400 ramp helps close that gap, the stock could break through the analyst target ceiling. If not, the current level may prove to be the ceiling.
The bull case rests on AMD’s data center momentum and the memory advantage of its MI400 chips. Data center revenue grew 57% year-over-year in the first quarter, and the 432 gigabytes of HBM4 memory per chip could be a decisive differentiator in the inference market, where memory capacity is often the limiting factor. The CPU business provides a stable foundation, with AMD claiming nearly 46% data center market share. If the August 4 earnings report shows pre-orders for the MI400 series exceeding internal expectations, the stock could challenge its 52-week high of €511.70. The relative strength index of 53.9 suggests the shares are far from overbought, leaving technical room for further gains.
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The bear case, however, is equally compelling. The stock trades 79.05% above its 200-day moving average of €264.90, a historically dangerous gap that often precedes a correction or prolonged consolidation. Annualized volatility stands at 70.69%, meaning any manufacturing delays or slower-than-expected Helios ramp could trigger a rapid pullback toward the 50-day moving average of €444.19. The narrow distance to the analyst target amplifies this risk: without a clear “beat and raise” on earnings, professional investors see little reason to push price targets higher.
For now, the chart supports a constructive view as long as the stock holds above the 50-day moving average. A retest of the €511.70 high is realistic on that basis. But the August 4 report will be the true test. Rising HBM4 costs that pressure margins or a weak second-half forecast could quickly undermine the current level. The €476.41 mark remains the key level to watch: a sustained breakout above it would signal that the market is genuinely revising its expectations for 2026 and 2027 upward.
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