Analysts Lift Almonty Forecasts as Tungsten Soars — But the Stock’s Slide Shows the Hurdle Ahead
Veröffentlicht: 15.05.2026 um 09:43 Uhr, Redaktion boerse-global.de
Almonty Industries is generating the kind of numbers that usually send a mining stock higher. Revenue tripled, cash flow turned sharply positive, and the balance sheet is the strongest it has been in years. Yet the shares have been sliding, caught in a tug-of-war between robust operational progress and a market that is already pricing in the next chapter.
The stock closed at C$25.12 on Thursday, down 12.9% over the past month despite a blistering 108.8% gain since the start of 2026. A single session on May 13 saw the shares fall more than 11% — a textbook case of profit-taking after a long run-up, but also a reminder that good quarterly numbers alone no longer suffice when the growth story is already well-known.
The APT Price Engine
At the centre of Almonty’s acceleration is the price of ammonium paratungstate (APT), the key tungsten intermediate. By May 8, spot APT had climbed to around US$3,140 per metric tonne unit, up from just US$862.50 at the beginning of the year. That near-tripling has rewritten the company’s earnings math.
The impact was on full display in the first quarter. Revenue surged 221% to C$25.4 million, compared with C$7.9 million a year earlier. The mine operating profit jumped to C$13.0 million from a mere C$0.8 million, overwhelming a slight dip in production volumes at the Panasqueira mine in Portugal.
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Almonty also reported adjusted EBITDA of C$6.1 million and operating cash flow of C$9.7 million for the quarter — metrics that mark a clear departure from the cash-burning phase typical of developers. At March 31, the company held C$259.9 million in cash and C$169.5 million in working capital, giving it substantial runway to fund the next stage of growth.
Sangdong Takes Centre Stage
The real prize, however, lies in South Korea. The Sangdong tungsten mine, one of the largest and highest-grade deposits outside China, was officially commissioned in March 2026. Once at full capacity, it is expected to supply more than 80% of the Western world’s tungsten output outside China.
Analysts are already incorporating that potential into their models. Diamond Equity Research raised its current-quarter earnings estimate to US$0.14 per share from US$0.12, citing Sangdong’s expected contribution. For fiscal 2027, the firm now forecasts earnings of US$1.23 per share — a signal that the ramp-up is seen as sustainable rather than a one-off.
Price targets remain well above the current share price. Oppenheimer has a target of US$19, B. Riley sits at US$23, and DA Davidson is the most bullish at US$25. A discounted cash flow analysis puts fair value at C$43.69, implying a 42% upside from Thursday’s close.
New CFO, Same Execution Focus
Management changes also underscore the shift from development to production. Jorge Beristain will take over as chief financial officer on June 1, stepping into a role that will be critical as Almonty navigates project financing, offtake agreements, and the cost control that comes with operating multiple mines.
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Meanwhile, CEO Lewis Black used a recent presentation to highlight a less discussed bottleneck: the shortage of skilled mining talent. In a talk titled “No Team, No Tungsten, No Time: The Human Capital Crisis in Mining,” he linked the labour crunch to the realignment of critical-mineral supply chains. The company is also establishing a US headquarters in Dillon, Montana, and developing the Gentung project there to stay close to defence and industrial customers.
For now, the market is waiting for Sangdong to deliver. Almonty has the cash, the price tailwind, and a maturing asset base. What remains to be proven is execution without delays. If the ramp-up stays on track, the operating re-rating that the Q1 results hinted at could gain real traction — but any stumble will hit a stock that already carries a heavy dose of expectation.
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