Analysts Split on Rheinmetall’s Rally as €109.7 Billion Budget Promise Clashes with F126 Void
Veröffentlicht: 07.07.2026 um 12:13 Uhr, Redaktion boerse-global.de
The defence sector’s favourite recovery play is being pulled in two directions at once. Rheinmetall’s stock has clawed back nearly 14% in a week, closing Monday at €1,139, but the rebound masks a deeper fracture: two of Europe’s largest banks have just slashed their price targets, arriving at starkly different conclusions about where the stock goes next.
Deutsche Bank’s Christoph Laskawi trimmed his target from €2,100 to €1,800 while sticking to a buy — a bet that still implies 60% upside. Across the aisle, JPMorgan’s David H. Perry lowered his own outlook to €1,350 and shifted to neutral, cutting earnings estimates on grounds that defence technology is evolving faster than expected, the German government is dragging its feet on new orders, and margin pressure is tightening. The chasm between these two views sums up the current mood: one camp sees the political tailwind as irresistible, the other sees execution risk as a permanent drag.
That political tailwind is real. Berlin’s cabinet has sketched a defence budget of €109.7 billion for 2027 — a near one-third leap from current levels — and the NATO summit in Ankara is debating fresh procurement alliances. Rheinmetall’s order book already sat at a record €73 billion in the first quarter, and the company has just racked up three new sales wins, including Skynex air-defence systems and ammunition for Ukraine.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rheinmetall?
But the numbers that spoil the narrative are equally concrete. The abrupt loss of the F126 frigate programme has carved a hole of up to €300 million in this year’s expected revenue, and the stock remains 29% below its January level. Even after the recent bounce, it trades 43% off its 52-week high. The annualised volatility of 70% speaks to the market’s frayed nerves.
Technically, the near-term is pinned to the 50-day moving average at €1,188.78. A clean break above that line would open the path to the 100-day average at €1,370.74, while the 200-day line, at a distant €1,531.22, marks the furthest bull-market horizon. The relative strength index at 51.6 signals a neutral zone, giving neither bulls nor bears a clear edge.
The next major test arrives with the second-quarter report on 6 August 2026. Investors will focus on free cash flow and the operating margin, which Rheinmetall aims to hold at roughly 19%. If the Bundestag’s appetite for debt-financed defence spending falters in the meantime, the entire sector could slide again.
For now, Rheinmetall sits at a crossroads where a €109.7 billion budget promise meets a €300 million disappointment — and where one analyst sees 60% upside while another sees little more than a hold. The only certainty is 70% volatility.
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