ASML Pushes Quantum Frontiers and India Expansion While Returning Capital to Shareholders

The Dutch lithography giant is juggling multiple narratives these days. On one hand, its High-NA EUV technology just enabled a breakthrough in quantum computing. On the other, the company is actively buying back shares, expanding into India, and reassuring the market that demand for its machines outstrips supply well into 2026.

Researchers at imec, the Belgian nanoelectronics lab, have successfully fabricated a quantum-dot qubit with a spacing of roughly six nanometers, using ASML’s High-NA EUV lithography. The step is seen as a critical move toward mass-producing millions of qubits on a single chip using standard CMOS processes, a leap from today’s lab-bound quantum systems. To support ever more complex chip architectures, ASML also unveiled a new EUV scatterometry technique, published in Nature Communications, that measures structures down to one nanometer without damaging the wafer, catching defects earlier in production.

This technological momentum runs parallel to a geographical one. On May 16, ASML signed a memorandum of understanding with Tata Electronics to equip India’s first commercial 300-millimeter chip factory in Dholera, Gujarat. The $11 billion facility, slated to start producing chips for automotive and AI applications in 2027, will rely on ASML’s lithography systems and technical expertise. It is a deliberate move to secure a foothold in emerging semiconductor regions, diversifying beyond the traditional strongholds of Taiwan, South Korea, and the United States.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Asml?

On the financial front, ASML reported first-quarter net sales of €8.8 billion, slightly above the market consensus of around €8.5 billion. Net income came in at €2.8 billion, and the gross margin hit 53%. Earnings per share of €7.15 topped some cautious estimates of €6.00 but fell short of Zacks’ consensus of €7.72, drawing attention to cost and margin dynamics. For the current quarter, the company targets revenue between €8.4 billion and €9.0 billion and a gross margin around 50%. Looking further ahead, management raised its 2026 revenue outlook to as much as €40 billion, citing accelerated capacity expansion by customers. By 2030, ASML envisions annual sales of €44 billion to €60 billion.

Against this backdrop, ASML is pressing ahead with a share buyback program announced on January 28 that runs through 2028. In the trading week ending May 15, it repurchased 60,388 of its own shares for roughly €79.4 million, signaling confidence in its own long-term value.

The shares, which have nearly doubled over the past twelve months and hit a record high of €1,363.60 recently, saw a mild pullback this week. After closing Monday at €1,265.20, the stock slipped 1.33% on Tuesday to €1,249.20. That trimmed the year-to-date advance to about 26% (from a slightly higher 28% at Monday’s close). The weekly decline stands at 2.15%, yet the price remains comfortably above its 200-day moving average, suggesting the underlying trend is still bullish.

Goldman Sachs maintains a “Buy” rating on ASML with a price target of €1,600, arguing that the long-term thesis remains intact as long as EUV spending continues to grow and margins hold steady. The combination of quantum-computing milestones, a broadening geographic footprint, and aggressive capital returns gives investors multiple reasons to stay engaged, even as the market keeps a close eye on earnings quality in a stock that has already run hard.

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