ASML’s 45 Billion Euro Order Buffer Meets a Split-Fueled Rally – But Geopolitical Risks Loom
Published on 07/05/2026 at 07:13 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The Dutch lithography giant closed the week at €1,628.00, notching a nearly 5% single-day advance that brought it within striking distance of its all-time high. While an audacious rally in chip stocks has been losing steam elsewhere – rivals like Lam Research suffered double-digit percentage slides – ASML has managed to decouple. Investors are piling in on two very different narratives: a resurgence of talk about a stock split, and a record order book that stands at a staggering €45 billion.
The split chatter picks up where KLA Corporation left off. That US peer executed a 10-for-1 split in May 2026 after its ADRs approached $1,800 – a level ASML’s own American depositary receipts are flirting with now. The logic goes: bringing the nominal price down makes the shares optically accessible to retail buyers, even though the fundamental value remains unchanged. ASML’s management has given no official nod to such a move, but the market is pricing in hope. Since the start of the year, the stock has already piled on 64.73% in euro terms, comfortably outpacing the broader semiconductor sector.
Underpinning the split speculation is a business that is, by any measure, flying high. The company lifted its 2026 revenue guidance to between €36 billion and €40 billion, with a gross margin target of 51% to 53%. In the first quarter alone, it generated €8.8 billion in sales and €2.8 billion in net profit. The key driver remains memory-chip makers, which are spending heavily on EUV tools to churn out advanced storage. ASML plans to ship 60 of its low-NA EUV machines this year – a 25% increase – and aims to hit 80 units in 2027. That trajectory is anchored by mega-projects like TSMC’s $165 billion fabrication complex in Arizona.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Asml?
The order backlog, at €45 billion, is the cushion that many investors point to when arguing that ASML can weather a potential cyclical downturn. Yet the cohort that focuses on the downside sees cracks. The memory sector is showing signs of cooling: SK Hynix has slowed down on its HBM4 chip construction, and Apple may be adjusting its procurement patterns in China. Technology funds are experiencing net outflows, and the AI frenzy that has powered the entire ecosystem for two years is showing fatigue. A correction that drags ASML back to its 100-day moving average near €1,322 is not out of the question, some analysts warn.
The most acute risk, however, is geopolitical. The US MATCH Act bipartisan bill would extend export restrictions to ASML’s DUV immersion lithography tools in China, beyond the current ban on EUV systems. China accounted for 33% of ASML’s revenue in 2025 – a share that swung wildly, hitting 42% in the third quarter alone. The company itself projects that figure will drop to around 20% in 2026. Should MATCH become law, analysts estimate a 14-15% hit to top-line sales and a 16-17% dent in EBIT at the gross level. A JPMorgan analyst forecasts as much as a 10% earnings cut from a total ban on advanced DUV sales and servicing. Dutch and Chinese officials are expected to hold direct trade talks soon, but the outcome is far from certain.
All these crosscurrents converge on a single date in the calendar: mid-July, when ASML reports second-quarter results. For the stock to reclaim its 52-week high of €1,748, it will need to clear several hurdles. The July numbers themselves must confirm that the €45 billion backlog is being executed at speed rather than idling. Management will have to offer a clear view on how quickly it is working through orders. And, if the board is finally willing to address the split speculation, that alone could trigger the next leg upward. In the meantime, traders are watching the €1,700 level as a near-term resistance and the 50-day line near €1,442 as the critical support that must hold for the bullish story to stay intact.
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