ASML’s China Conundrum Deepens as US Legislation Targets DUV Sales and Micron Provides a Lifeline
Veröffentlicht: 29.06.2026 um 17:19 Uhr, Redaktion boerse-global.de
The Dutch chip-equipment giant ASML is caught in a tug-of-war between Washington’s expanding export-control net and a booming memory-chip cycle that just delivered a stunning earnings beat from key customer Micron Technology. While the stock has surged roughly 60% year-to-date, the next leg hinges on how management navigates the MATCH Act and the fast-shrinking China revenue stream when it reports second-quarter numbers in mid-July — though the exact date remains contested between July 15 and July 17.
Micron’s bonanza offers a near-term buffer
Micron Technology stunned the market on July 10 with fiscal third-quarter revenue of $41.46 billion, up from $9.30 billion a year earlier. The memory giant also disclosed a multi-year EUV supply agreement with ASML for its 1-delta node and beyond, sending chip-equipment stocks sharply higher. Lam Research and Applied Materials jumped more than 6% in pre-market trading, while ASML and KLA added more than 4%. The news underscores the secular demand for ASML’s lithography tools — especially as DRAM manufacturers now account for 51% of its system sales, up sharply from historical levels.
Washington tightens the screws on DUV exports
Yet the Micron tailwind collides with a fast-moving legislative threat. On April 2, the MATCH Act was introduced in the US Congress and cleared a key committee on April 22. If enacted, the bill would extend America’s unilateral export controls to ASML’s deep-ultraviolet (DUV) machines — precisely the systems the company can still legally sell to China. Until now, only the most advanced extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) tools have been subject to US restrictions.
The Netherlands’ decision to join the US-led Pax Silica technology alliance on June 23 adds further momentum to export harmonization. Trade Minister Sjoerd Sjoerdsma signed the declaration in Washington, committing The Hague to coordinating semiconductor and AI supply chains and reducing dependence on China. “The stakes for the Netherlands are exceptionally high,” Sjoerdsma said, as the country also fights to shield ASML from the MATCH Act. The law would empower Washington to dictate what allied chip sectors can sell to China, with non-compliant firms risking US export bans themselves.
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China sales have already halved
The shift is already visible in the numbers. China accounted for 36% of ASML’s system sales in the fourth quarter of 2025, but that figure plunged to 19% in the first quarter of 2026 — a decline driven by customers pulling forward orders ahead of anticipated restrictions. Management now expects China to represent roughly 20% of full-year revenue, equivalent to €7-8 billion. Over the past three years, Chinese customers contributed €27 billion to ASML’s top line, a spigot that is rapidly closing. Should the MATCH Act pass in its current form, the remaining DUV business would be legally capped.
Q1 results beat expectations, Q2 guidance solid
ASML’s underlying performance remains robust. In the first quarter, the company posted revenue of €8.8 billion and net profit of €2.76 billion, translating into earnings per share of €7.15 — well above the analyst consensus of €6.00. The gross margin of 53% landed at the top end of the company’s own target range. EUV systems alone contributed more than €4.1 billion to system sales, including two High-NA units. For the second quarter, ASML guided for revenue between €8.4 billion and €9.0 billion, with a gross margin of 51% to 52%.
Two additional pressure points: High-NA and Nikon
Beyond geopolitics, ASML faces headwinds on the technology front. Demand for its flagship High-NA EUV tools, which cost between €350 million and €400 million apiece, remains tepid as TSMC and other major customers lean toward cheaper packaging alternatives. At the same time, rival Nikon is undercutting ASML on older DUV systems, threatening market share in the mature-technology segment.
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Investor conviction remains high
Despite the uncertainties, institutional appetite is growing. A total of 133 hedge funds held ASML shares at the end of the first quarter, up from 101 in the prior period. Of the 40 analysts covering the stock, 38 rate it a buy. The shares trade at around €1,575 — roughly 7.5% below the all-time high of €1,710 set in late June, with a relative strength index of 54 and 30-day annualized volatility near 56%. Every geopolitical headline now moves the stock, making the upcoming earnings release — whether on July 15 or July 17 — a critical litmus test for whether the bull case can withstand the policy storm.
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