ASML’s Dividend Hike and Revenue Upgrade Are No Match for Valuation and Geopolitical Headwinds
Published on 07/20/2026 at 02:53 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
ASML delivered a bumper set of second-quarter results, raised its interim dividend to €1.88 per share, and lifted its 2026 revenue forecast to between €43 billion and €45 billion — yet none of that could prevent the stock from closing Friday at €1,528.00, down 2.51% on the day and 6.29% lower over the past 30 days. The disconnect between the company’s operational strength and its market reception has left observers scratching their heads.
The Dutch lithography giant posted €9.3 billion in revenue for the April-to-June period, with a gross margin of 54.0% and net profit of €2.9 billion. Chief executive Christophe Fouquet described orders in the first half as “extremely strong,” noting that customers have accelerated their capacity plans. The company also outlined a more aggressive expansion of low-NA EUV systems in 2027, signaling confidence in long-term demand. Shareholders will receive the interim dividend in August as part of the total payout for 2026.
Analysts responded with an avalanche of price target increases. Citi lifted its target from €1,675 to €2,200, Berenberg from €1,570 to €2,100, and Deutsche Bank from €1,800 to €2,150. In the US, JPMorgan raised its view to $2,400, Wells Fargo to $2,500, and Argus to $2,100. The LBBW upgraded the stock from “Hold” to “Buy” with a new target of €1,900, up from €1,330. Among the 44 analysts covering ASML, the consensus rating remains “Strong Buy.”
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Asml?
So why did the shares give back an early gain of more than 7% on Friday and finish in the red? The answer lies in valuation and a broader rotation away from high-flying semiconductor names. With a price-to-earnings ratio of roughly 50 times expected earnings, ASML trades at levels last seen during the pandemic euphoria — a multiple that Morningstar analyst Javier Correonero calls hard to justify. He argues a fair value range of 35 to 40 times earnings would be more appropriate. That caution resonated as the VanEck Semiconductor ETF slid more than 4%, with peers ASMI, STMicroelectronics, and Infineon all suffering heavy losses.
Geopolitical uncertainty continues to hang over the stock. ASML expects China to account for roughly 20% of full-year revenue, but its share dropped from 19% in the first quarter to just 14% in the second. South Korea has overtaken China as the largest regional market, contributing 43% of quarterly sales. The threat of tighter US-led export controls on ASML’s most advanced machines remains a concern, though Correonero notes that past restrictions have paradoxically triggered buying sprees as Chinese customers rush to secure equipment before new rules take effect.
Chart watchers see room for movement in both directions. The stock currently sits 1.53% above its 50-day moving average of €1,504.90 but still 12.59% below the all-time high of €1,748.00 set on June 30. At 30.53% above the 200-day average, the long-term uptrend remains intact, while the 14-day relative strength index of 47.5 points to a neutral reading — neither oversold nor overbought.
For now, the market appears to be pricing in the good news and then some. ASML’s record order book, twice-upgraded annual guidance, and rising dividend are being weighed against a valuation that leaves little room for error. The next major catalyst will likely come from the trajectory of export restrictions and whether upcoming delivery numbers can live up to the raised ambitions of a Street full of bulls.
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Asml Stock: New Analysis - 20 July
Fresh Asml information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
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