ASML’s Pricing Gambit and Record Orders: A Monopoly Flexes While the Market Frowns
Published on 07/21/2026 at 07:22 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
ASML’s latest quarter was a testament to its unique position — net profit jumped to €2.9 billion on revenue of €9.3 billion, and the Dutch lithography giant lifted its full-year revenue forecast to between €43 billion and €45 billion. Yet the stock closed Monday at €1,527.60, 12.61% below its 52-week high, as investors weighed the strength of the order book against geopolitical headwinds and a broader semiconductor selloff triggered by China’s Kimi K3 AI model.
The disconnect reflects more than market jitters. Behind the scenes, ASML is testing the limits of its monopoly in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography, pushing for higher prices that have met resistance from its biggest customer, TSMC. Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen told analysts that “significant headroom” exists for price increases on Low-NA EUV systems, arguing that the machines deliver huge productivity and cost savings to chipmakers — and ASML wants a larger slice of that value. TSMC, however, is pushing back, unwilling to absorb further price hikes without a fight. The tension is set to simmer, with meaningful price adjustments unlikely to affect systems delivered before late 2028, given that production for 2027 is already nearly sold out.
The pricing strategy aligns with ASML’s aggressive capacity expansion. The company plans to boost production capacity for both EUV and DUV systems by 30% in 2027 and another 30% in 2028, responding to what CEO Christophe Fouquet called “extremely strong” order intake driven by artificial intelligence demand for advanced logic and memory chips. High-Bandwidth Memory for AI accelerators is a key growth driver. Meanwhile, Intel has already deployed High-NA EUV systems — which cost between €350 million and €400 million each — for its 18A process, while TSMC remains cautious about the new generation’s cost.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Asml?
ASML is simultaneously signaling confidence through its capital allocation. Between July 13 and July 17, the company repurchased over 120,000 shares for roughly €188 million, including 49,560 shares at an average price of €1,576.35 on July 16 alone. The buyback program, running from 2026 to 2028, continues despite the stock’s recent pullback. Management has also confirmed an interim dividend of €1.88 per share for 2026, payable from August 5. The net margin swelled to 31.2% in the second quarter, beating analyst estimates.
On the human capital front, ASML is deploying a retention tool of its own: a one-time conditional stock award worth €20,000 for roughly 44,500 to 45,000 employees. The shares vest on January 1, 2027, with a lock-up through January 1, 2030 — employees who leave early forfeit the grant. The move counters aggressive compensation from Asian rivals such as Samsung, which is reportedly offering bonuses of up to $340,000, and similar programs at TSMC and SK Hynix. Over half of ASML’s workforce is based in the Netherlands, with about 8,500 in the United States.
The market’s caution is not without reason. ASML trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of roughly 54.9, above the sector average of 45.8 but below the peer group average of 66.3. Eight analysts have buy ratings on the stock, with a consensus price target of about $2,421. However, the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, commissioned by the Dutch government, recently flagged a “very high risk” of Chinese influence in the domestic semiconductor sector, citing years of espionage targeting ASML and NXP. The report calls for stricter security checks at the company’s Veldhoven headquarters.
China’s share of ASML’s revenue is forecast to drop to roughly 20% in 2026, down from over 40% previously, as US-led export restrictions tighten. The company acknowledges this as a risk factor alongside potential further curbs on equipment servicing for Chinese customers. The combination of record orders, a pricing standoff with TSMC, and a sector-wide correction leaves ASML in an unusual position: a monopoly with unimpeachable demand, yet subject to forces it cannot control.
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