At the Crossroads of AI Dominance and PC Ambition: Nvidia's Stock Waits for a Catalyst

Nvidia’s shares have been stuck in a rut — trading at around €181.40, roughly 10% below the 52-week high of €201.05 — despite the company just delivering what is arguably its strongest financial quarter on record. With a relative strength index of 36, the stock is nudging into oversold territory, a curious spot for a company that reported an 85% jump in revenue to $81.6 billion. The market’s hesitation, however, may have less to do with recent performance and more with what lies ahead: a bold and costly expansion into the PC chip market coupled with a massive, geopolitically charged investment in Taiwan.

The centerpiece of Nvidia’s upcoming Computex presence in Taipei — the show runs from June 2 to 5, with CEO Jensen Huang delivering a keynote on June 1 — is the N1X, the company’s first ARM-based high-performance processor for Windows laptops. The chip, manufactured by TSMC on a 3-nanometer node, packs a 20-core ARM CPU paired with a graphics core on par with an RTX 5070. Nvidia is framing it as a direct assault on the x86 stronghold of Intel and AMD, positioning the N1X as capable of running large language models with over 100 billion parameters locally on the device. Partners including Dell, Lenovo, ASUS, and MSI are expected to showcase early designs, with a market launch slated before Christmas 2026.

Yet the N1X is only one piece of a much larger strategic realignment. Huang’s keynote is also expected to offer fresh details on the Vera Rubin platform — the successor to the Blackwell architecture — and on AI agent applications. Behind these product ambitions lies a staggering commitment to Taiwan: Nvidia plans to ramp its annual spending in the region to $150 billion, up from the current $10 billion to $15 billion range. A new headquarters in Taipei will break ground in mid-2026 and accommodate up to 4,000 employees when it becomes operational by 2030. That investment underscores Nvidia’s deep reliance on partners such as TSMC, MediaTek, and ASE, and its determination to lock in supply for the coming Vera Rubin generation.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nvidia?

The financial firepower for these moves comes from a quarter that left little to be desired. For the first quarter of fiscal 2027, the data center segment alone contributed $75.2 billion of the $81.6 billion in revenue. Adjusted earnings per share surged 140% to $1.87. Free cash flow reached $49 billion. The board has authorized an $80 billion share buyback program and raised the quarterly dividend from a token $0.01 to $0.25 per share — a 2,400% increase. For the current quarter, management has guided for revenue of roughly $91 billion.

But the bullish narrative is not without its thorns. On the geopolitical front, Huang acknowledged that Nvidia’s market share in China has collapsed from 95% to nearly zero, a casualty of US export restrictions that block shipments of chips like the H200. Chinese rival Huawei is filling the void. Even so, Huang has taken a seat on the advisory board of Tsinghua University’s School of Economics and Management, joining the likes of Tim Cook and Elon Musk — a signal that Nvidia is not ready to abandon the market entirely.

Closer to the bottom line, analysts have flagged a potential cost headwind tied to the Vera Rubin platform. Memory expenses for the next-generation architecture could climb by more than 400%, eating into margins as a share of total material costs. Consensus price targets among sell-side analysts stand at $305, while Tigress Financial has set a more aggressive target of $425 — nearly doubling the current level.

Institutional investors appear to be betting on that upside. Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management recently increased its stake by 4.7%, bringing the value of its Nvidia holdings to approximately $9.93 billion. With the stock already in oversold territory and a week of product announcements ahead, the stage is set for a potential shift in sentiment. Jensen Huang’s Sunday keynote may well be the spark that finally breaks the stock out of its recent malaise.

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