Barrick Gold Opens 2026 with Upbeat Backdrop Ahead of Results

Important milestone set for February

Barrick plans to unveil its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 5, 2026. With gold prices at multi-year highs, many observers anticipate a meaningful uplift in earnings.

The backdrop rests on several favorable trends from the prior year:
- Substantially elevated gold prices supporting top-line growth and margins
- A robust Q3 performance that raises the bar for full-year results
- Analysts forecasting solid earnings expansion for 2025 and 2026

In European trading, Barrick’s shares were around €39.91, just below their latest 52-week high. Over the past year, the stock has surged roughly 160%, underscoring how much the thesis is already priced in by investors.

Jefferies eyes additional upside

Jefferies is among the optimists. The bank lifted its target price for Barrick from $46 to $55 and reiterated a Buy rating. In its note, the firm called Barrick a “Top-Pick among large-cap gold miners,” highlighting the stock’s appeal within the sector.

Key reasons cited by analyst Fahad Tariq include:
- Attractive valuation relative to peers
- Potential for margin expansion driven by high gold prices
- Expected increases in free cash flow in 2026
- Operational strength that could justify a premium valuation

Taken together, Jefferies argues Barrick stands to gain from high gold prices while also delivering internal leverage for margin and earnings growth.

A strong Q3 as a roadmap

The third quarter of 2025 provided a clear read on Barrick’s leverage to gold prices. The company reported:
- Operating cash flow of $2.4 billion (a record for a quarter)
- Free cash flow of $1.5 billion
- Gold production of 829,000 ounces
- Copper production of 55,000 tonnes

These results set a benchmark for the year ahead, signaling ample room for debt reduction, dividend payments, or reinvestment in production. They also amplified the expectations for the Q4 and full-year figures.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Barrick?

Gold price: the main driver

Gold’s strength remains the primary driver of Barrick’s momentum. The metal traded above $4,400 per ounce in 2025, delivering roughly a 65% gain for the year and reshaping the landscape for producers like Barrick.

The forces behind the gold rally included geopolitical frictions, such as U.S.–Venezuela tensions, uncertainties around U.S. tariff policy, anticipated rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, and active gold purchases by central banks worldwide. This combination reinforced gold’s status as a safe haven and boosted demand for gold equities.

Rising costs cap the upside

Even with a supportive price backdrop, the story isn’t without its hurdles. Production costs rose, cooling some of the margin windfall. Barrick’s all-in sustaining costs (AISC) for Q3 2025 rose to $1,538 per ounce, about 2% higher year over year. Management remains guiding a full-year AISC range of $1,460 to $1,560 per ounce.

Production also cooled somewhat in Q3, with a 12% drop in aggregated output versus the prior year. A notable factor is the suspended operations at the Loulo-Gounkoto mine complex in Mali, where disputes with the government persist without a near-term resolution. This episode illustrates how political risk can shape the operational plan of a global miner.

Valuation math and growth expectations

Despite the rally, Barrick doesn’t look stretched on a forward basis. The stock trades with a forward price-earnings ratio of about 12.8, roughly 4.7% below the sector average of 13.47.

Consensus growth projections from Zacks suggest a vivid growth trajectory:
- 2025 earnings growth: about 79.4%
- 2026 earnings growth: about 51.4%

Taken together, the market remains confident that Barrick can translate elevated gold prices into meaningfully higher earnings and freer cash flow, even in the face of rising costs and at least some production challenges.

The pivotal date: February 5

The Q4 and full-year 2025 release on February 5, 2026 will be decisive. Investors will be focused on three areas: whether Barrick can confirm the Q3 cash-flow trend, how production volumes and cost structures have evolved into Q4, and the progress (or lack thereof) on the Mali project Loulo-Gounkoto. The outcomes will determine whether the ambitious earnings expectations for 2025 and 2026 remain intact and whether the recent rally can be sustained.