Barrick Gold’s Strategic Shift: Unlocking Value Through a North American Spin-Off

Barrick Gold is contemplating a significant corporate restructuring that could redefine the market's valuation of its core North American assets. This strategic move coincides with a powerful tailwind from soaring precious metals prices. The pivotal question is whether joint venture partner Newmont will support the proposed initial public offering (IPO) of the North American division or prioritize its own strategic interests.

The company is currently riding a wave of exceptional strength in the commodity markets. Gold is approaching the $5,000 per ounce threshold, while silver has breached the $100 mark, recently posting a gain of 5.20%. This favorable pricing environment is directly boosting profitability.

For the third quarter, Barrick reported a 23.2% year-over-year revenue increase to $4.19 billion. Earnings per share came in at $0.58, slightly exceeding analyst consensus estimates of $0.57. This robust financial backdrop provides a solid foundation for the company's ambitious restructuring plans.

The Centerpiece: A Planned 2026 IPO for North American Operations

Management is advancing preparations for a potential public listing of its North American operations in 2026. The new entity would be comprised of major assets including the massive "Nevada Gold Mines" (NGM) joint venture, the Pueblo Viejo mine, and the Fourmile development project.

The market currently ascribes an approximate value of $42 billion to Barrick's North American business segment. However, the execution of this plan is not solely in Barrick's hands. Newmont, which holds a 38.5% stake in NGM, possesses a "Right of First Refusal." Consequently, Barrick cannot proceed with the proposed structure without Newmont's consent or cooperation. The inclusion of the Fourmile project, in particular, requires a capital commitment from the partner.

Market reaction to the news was immediately positive. Barrick's shares advanced by 1.90% in Toronto and 3.65% on the NYSE, while Newmont's stock gained 1.52%. Investors are now speculating on whether Newmont will facilitate the deal or potentially use it as an opportunity to reconfigure its own portfolio.

Institutional Investors Position for Change

Significant movements are evident within Barrick's shareholder base, indicating how major institutions are assessing the upcoming changes. One asset manager has made a particularly substantial increase to its holding.

CIBC Asset Management boosted its position in Q3 2025 by 316.0%. The firm now holds 18,287,558 Barrick shares, a stake worth approximately $601 million representing about 1.7% of CIBC's total portfolio. This aggressive accumulation suggests large investors are pricing in the structural overhaul and the supportive commodity cycle as key value drivers.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Barrick Mining?

This buying contrasts with some smaller reductions. Cheviot Value Management, for instance, decreased its position by 24.7%, divesting 140,046 shares.

Geopolitical and Executive Developments

Outside of North America, the situation in Mali, while still tense, is showing early signs of stabilization. Following disputes with the government, gold production there fell by 23% in 2025. The recent appointment of a former Barrick manager to lead the Mali operations is viewed as a signal that the relationship could improve over the medium term.

Concurrently, Barrick is restructuring its financial leadership. Helen Cai is slated to assume the role of Chief Financial Officer on March 1, 2026. This appointment comes at a critical juncture as the company must establish the technical and financial groundwork for the complex North American separation.

Valuation, Targets, and Shareholder Returns

Despite the strong recent share price performance, a gap has emerged between the market price and analyst targets. While the consensus recommendation remains "Buy," the average price target of $46.91 now sits below the current share price of $51.04.

This discrepancy implies the market may have reacted more swiftly to the spin-off potential and metals rally than analyst models, or it may be applying a valuation premium for the planned separation that is not yet fully captured in all financial forecasts.

For income-focused investors, the dividend provides a stabilizing element. Barrick recently raised its quarterly payout to $0.175 per share, equating to an annualized $0.70 and a yield of roughly 1.4%.

Key Data and Upcoming Catalysts

• Current Share Price: $51.04
• Market Capitalization: Approximately $85.5 billion
• Primary Catalyst: Planned North American IPO (Estimated Value: ~$42 billion)
• Institutional Activity: CIBC purchased an additional ~13.89 million shares
• Macro Backdrop: Gold near $5,000/oz, Silver above $100/oz
• Next Major Event: Q4 2025 Earnings (Expected February 2026)

In the near term, further news regarding the proposed spin-off and Newmont's positioning will likely be the dominant drivers for the stock. The Q4 2025 results, expected in February 2026, should offer additional clarity on the company's earnings power within the current high-price precious metals environment.