Barrick’s Earnings Surge to $1.6 Billion as Gold Prices Soar, But Mali Disruption and IPO Doubts Temper the Outlook

Barrick Mining has posted a blockbuster first quarter, with net income rocketing to $1.60 billion from $474 million a year earlier, powered by a 66% jump in the realized gold price to $4,823 per ounce. Yet beneath the headline numbers lie two distinct challenges: a stubborn operational crisis in Mali and the intricate mechanics of a planned North American spin-off that could remake the company’s structure by the end of 2026.

North America carried the quarter. The region produced 457,000 ounces of gold, delivered attributable EBITDA of $1.55 billion and posted a margin of 69%. Nevada Gold Mines, the joint venture with Newmont, set an underground production record. BMO analyst Matthew Murphy described the start to the year as strong, noting that free cash flow of nearly $1.6 billion overshot expectations, with North and Latin America outperforming while Africa lagged.

The drag came from the Loulo-Gounkoto complex in Mali. Barrick is still working to restore full operations after taking back control in December. The largest contractor, Gounkoto Mining Services, is pulling out; Barrick will not renew the contract in 2026 and has issued termination notices to more than 600 employees. The Gounkoto and Yalea North mines remain idle. Baboto and Gara West are producing again through local operators, but output remains depressed: Loulo-Gounkoto recently delivered roughly 80,000 ounces, with a target of 103,000 ounces for the current quarter—well below pre-disruption levels.

The company aims to install a replacement contractor by year-end and restart mining at another open pit. That timetable will be closely watched, because any delay would leave the earnings burden squarely on Nevada, Latin America and the elevated gold price through the second half.

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A structural shift in North America

Barrick is also preparing to list a minority stake in its North American business, a move that would consolidate some of its most valuable assets under a new public vehicle. The planned listing, expected in New York with a secondary Toronto listing, is slated for late 2026, subject to market conditions and regulatory approvals. The entity would include Barrick’s interests in Nevada Gold Mines, Pueblo Viejo and the Fourmile project, which together produced about 2.0 million attributable ounces in 2025.

Wessel Hamman is set to become chief financial officer of the new company, with Tim Cribb as chief operating officer. The board has also authorised a share buyback of up to $3.0 billion, linking the programme to the company’s valuation and the forthcoming IPO.

Yet some observers question the timeline. Martin Pradier, gold analyst at Veritas Research, believes Barrick is already pushing the spin-off back. A further complication is Newmont’s February default notice over the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture, which cited underperformance. Barrick says it is in discussions with Newmont on operational improvements, the IPO plan and the timing for contributing Fourmile. The company maintains it has room to act independently, but the partnership remains a critical variable.

Further growth is also taking shape on the copper side. The Lumwana Super Pit expansion in Zambia is on schedule and on budget, with first copper production targeted for the end of the first quarter of 2028. Barrick expects capital expenditure at the lower end of the $750 million to $850 million range in 2026, and projects total capital outlay of $2 billion. When complete, Lumwana’s annual output should more than double from an average of 117,000 tonnes to 240,000 tonnes, making it the most important growth driver outside gold.

Stock market dynamics and dividends

Shares have been on a tear. In one recent session, Barrick closed at C$62.82, up 10.70% on the week and 154.44% over twelve months. In another report, the stock traded at C$61.55 after falling 4.43% from the previous day’s close of C$64.40, though it still showed a 16.66% weekly gain and a 144.45% annual increase. The volatility reflects the push and pull between record earnings and the uncertainties in Mali and around the spin-off.

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The company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.175 per share, payable in mid-June. Its policy targets an annual payout of 50% of attributable free cash flow, split between a base dividend and a possible performance-linked supplement.

For the current quarter, Barrick has set a gold production target of 730,000 to 770,000 ounces, with output expected to rise further in the second half. Whether the IPO timeline holds will depend not only on the market window, but on consistent performance from Nevada Gold Mines and the steady development of Fourmile, whose indicated resources have climbed to 2.6 million ounces and inferred resources to 13 million ounces. A full feasibility study for Fourmile remains on track for 2028.

In the near term, all eyes are on Mali. If Barrick can install a new contractor and restart a second open pit before the year ends, Loulo-Gounkoto could begin contributing more meaningfully to production by 2026. If the restart stalls, the weight of the recovery will rest on Nevada, Latin America and the continued strength of gold.

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