Barrick’s Strategic Ambitions Face a Formidable Hurdle

Barrick Gold is navigating one of the most significant corporate restructuring efforts in the mining sector, but its path is obstructed by a powerful contractual clause. The company's strategy to spin off its North American assets through an initial public offering (IPO) is encountering resistance from its joint-venture partner, Newmont, which holds a critical veto right. This challenge emerges alongside a leadership transition at the top and a supportive surge in gold prices, raising questions about the stability of Barrick's next strategic chapter.

Operationally, Barrick is benefiting from a robust market. On January 24, 2026, the gold price briefly surpassed the $5,000 per ounce threshold for the first time, with the spot price recently around $4,988. In response, Goldman Sachs raised its year-end 2026 price target from $4,900 to $5,400 per ounce.

Financial institutions cite three primary drivers for this bullish outlook:
* Central Bank Purchases: Numerous central banks, particularly in emerging markets, continue to expand their gold reserves.
* Private Sector Hedging: Geopolitical tensions are prompting companies and investors to increase their gold holdings as a hedge against extreme risks.
* Inflation and Debt Concerns: Globally elevated government debt levels are fueling fears of persistent higher inflation.

For Barrick, higher gold prices bolster cash-generating mines and make future project investments more attractive from a market perspective.

The Newmont Veto: A Core Constraint

At the heart of the proposed spin-off is an IPO for Barrick's North American portfolio, which includes its flagship Nevada Gold Mines (NGM) operation, the Pueblo Viejo mine in the Dominican Republic, and the early-stage Fourmile project in Nevada. Market analysts estimate this unit's value at approximately $42 billion, a substantial portion of Barrick's total worth.

The complication arises from the joint-venture agreement with Newmont. SEC filings indicate that Barrick's 61.5% stake in NGM cannot be transferred without the consent of both partners. Newmont holds a right of first refusal. In practical terms, this means the core NGM assets cannot be simply carved out into a new listed entity without Newmont's approval, granting the U.S. miner significant influence over the spin-off's structure, timing, and feasibility.

Leadership Vacuum and Strategic Uncertainty

Compounding the situation is a temporary leadership structure. Interim CEO Mark Hill is managing daily operations while the search for a permanent chief executive continues. This interim setup is less than ideal for steering a complex undertaking like a major asset separation.

On a positive note, the appointment of new Chief Financial Officer Helen Cai brings fresh M&A expertise to the table. Her transactional experience is expected to play a key role in structuring the potential IPO and in negotiations with Newmont. Barrick has indicated it will provide more concrete details on the spin-off plan alongside its fourth-quarter 2025 results, scheduled for release in February 2026.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Barrick?

A Shift in the Balance of Power

The dynamic between the two mining giants has notably shifted. In 2019, Barrick attempted to acquire Newmont, a move that ultimately resulted in the formation of the NGM joint venture instead. Today, Newmont appears to hold the stronger hand. A former Barrick manager familiar with the JV structure noted that Newmont is now in the comfortable position of "setting the direction." Newmont has publicly confirmed that the joint-venture agreement remains unchanged and that it has no additional insight into Barrick's IPO plans beyond public information.

This reality dictates that any move toward a spin-off must be designed so Newmont perceives no disadvantage—or is sufficiently compensated. Otherwise, the veto right could become an absolute blockade.

The Fourmile Funding Question

Another potential friction point is the Fourmile project in Nevada, which Barrick describes as one of the most significant gold discoveries this century and a future cornerstone asset. Developing it, however, requires additional capital, and Newmont's cooperation is again essential.

During an analyst call in October 2025, incoming Newmont CEO Natasha Viljoen stated the company was awaiting more information before committing to fund Fourmile. This underscores Barrick's dependency on its partner's willingness to collaborate; without Newmont's approval and capital commitment, the project's investment timeline and scope could face significant delays.

Market Performance and Valuation

Equity markets have already reflected the positive mix of gold's rally and earnings potential. Barrick's stock surged 130% in 2025 and currently trades at a record €43.19, representing a gain of roughly 184% from its 52-week low of €15.18. Despite this strong twelve-month trend, a 14-day RSI of 28.4 suggests near-term momentum has cooled.

From a valuation perspective, the stock does not appear excessively expensive. Analysts forecast 2026 earnings per share of $3.39, about 48.6% higher than 2025. This implies a forward P/E ratio of approximately 13.2, which remains clearly below the 10-year average of 20, indicating the market is pricing in rising profits without stretching historical valuation bands.

Conclusion: Potential Meets Partnership Dependency

Barrick currently combines several compelling narratives: record gold prices strengthen its earnings base, the planned North American asset separation could unlock value, and 2026 profit forecasts reveal solid growth potential alongside a moderate valuation. However, these are counterbalanced by a central risk: Newmont's veto power and financial influence within the Nevada joint venture.

The extent to which Barrick can implement its IPO plans will likely become clearer around the Q4 2025 results in February 2026. The decisive factor will be less about sentiment in the gold market and more about whether Barrick's management can devise a structure that gains Newmont's assent—or at least avoids its veto.