Bayer's Crop Science Engine Drives Q1 Earnings Beat, While Glyphosate-Litigation Cash Burn and Supreme Court Ruling Hang Over the Stock
Published on 05/13/2026 at 17:42 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Bayer has delivered a first-quarter 2026 earnings beat that caught the market’s attention, with core earnings per share of €2.71 and EBITDA before special items climbing 9% to €4.45 billion — well above the consensus estimate of €3.93 billion. The agricultural division, long a drag on sentiment, provided the firepower. Crop Science posted a currency-adjusted revenue gain of 6.8% to €7.6 billion, while its EBITDA before special items surged 17.9% to €3.0 billion, underpinned by a €448 million licensing deal with Corteva for soybean traits. Strong demand for soybean and corn seed along with recovering dicamba prices added further momentum.
The pharmaceuticals segment painted a more mixed picture. Revenue from Nubeqa rose 57% and Kerendia jumped 84%, but those gains were largely eaten up by patent expirations on Xarelto and Eylea, dragging segment EBITDA down 7.5% to €1.24 billion. Even so, the decline was milder than analysts had braced for. Group revenue on a currency-adjusted basis rose 4.1% to €13.4 billion.
For all the operational strength, the cash register tells a different story. Free cash flow came in at minus €2.3 billion for the quarter, with roughly €2.0 billion going out the door to settle PCB and glyphosate-related claims. Net financial debt stood at €32.5 billion at the end of March, down about 5% from a year earlier but still a heavy burden. Currency headwinds also bit hard: a weak dollar shaved roughly €890 million off revenue in the quarter.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Bayer?
CEO Wolfgang Nickl reaffirmed the full-year guidance based on March 31 exchange rates, targeting revenue of €44.5 billion to €46.5 billion and core earnings per share in a range of €4.10 to €4.60. The company is also betting big on ophthalmology, agreeing to buy Perfuse Therapeutics for up to $2.45 billion — a move that UBS and Barclays both support with buy ratings. Barclays has a €48 price target on the stock, JPMorgan overweight at €50, and mwb research sees fair value at €52.
At €37.99, Bayer shares are roughly 22% below their February high of €49.17, though they have still gained more than 54% over the past twelve months. The next major catalyst is the US Supreme Court’s decision on glyphosate liability, expected by the end of June. A favorable ruling could lift the valuation discount that has weighed on the stock for years — and give investors the clean signal they have been waiting for.
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