Bayer’s Supreme Court Win Opens the Door — But Debt and a Stroke Drug Will Decide the Next Move
29.06.2026 - 04:23:36 | boerse-global.de
The 23% surge in Bayer’s stock following the US Supreme Court’s June 25 ruling has recast the company’s outlook, but technical indicators suggest the euphoria may be overdone. The relative strength index sits at 80.6, deep in overbought territory, and the shares now trade nearly 23% above their 50-day moving average. The rally’s staying power will depend less on legal sentiment and more on two concrete events: a July 9 settlement hearing in Missouri and the regulatory fate of Asundexian, the stroke drug that must replace fading Xarelto revenues.
The Supreme Court decision bars individual US states from mandating cancer warnings on glyphosate-based products, removing a key source of uncertainty that had weighed on the shares for years. Yet the ruling does not erase the company’s most pressing financial challenges. Net financial debt stood at roughly €30 billion at year-end 2025, a decline of only 8.5% that was largely currency-driven. Free cash flow fell 32.9% to €2.1 billion in 2025, and the company expects around €5 billion in legal payouts this year alone. The immediate test is the $7.25 billion settlement with Roundup plaintiffs, which a Missouri court will scrutinize on July 9. If the deal holds, the most expensive litigation in Bayer’s history would be largely resolved. If it collapses, the risk premium embedded in the stock could evaporate quickly.
That legal risk is matched by an operational imperative centered on Asundexian. The once-daily oral Factor XIa inhibitor reduced ischemic strokes by 26% in the pivotal OCEANIC-STROKE trial without increasing bleeding risk, positioning it as a potential blockbuster. The US Food and Drug Administration granted priority review in May 2026, the European Medicines Agency has initiated its central assessment, and China also awarded priority status. Bayer aims for simultaneous approvals in all three markets — a feat that would hand it a regulatory lead over Bristol Myers Squibb and Johnson & Johnson’s competing drug Milvexian. A decision from the FDA is expected by the end of this year. Asundexian’s success is critical because Xarelto’s patent cliff hit hard in 2025, with sales tumbling 31.6% on a currency-adjusted basis, while Eylea slipped 3.7% under generic pressure in several key markets.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Bayer?
The company is not standing still. Cost-cutting is accelerating: Bayer eliminated a significant layer of management positions and expects to reduce expenses by €800 million by end-2025 and by roughly €2 billion annually thereafter. In June, it acquired Perfuse Therapeutics, adding an ophthalmology candidate to the pipeline. Meanwhile, the agriculture division, Crop Science, provided a stable foundation with 2025 full-year revenue of €21.6 billion, up 1.1% in currency-adjusted terms. In the most recent quarter, the unit posted €7.558 billion in sales and an operating margin of 39.9%, underscoring the underlying strength of the seeds and crop protection business. Yet generic competition from Asian manufacturers continues to squeeze prices.
Technicians caution that the 23% weekly gain has left the stock vulnerable to a pullback. The 14-day RSI of 80.6 is well above the 70 threshold that typically signals overbought conditions, and the annualized volatility of 57.83% underscores a highly speculative environment. The next factual test comes in mid-August, when Bayer publishes second-quarter results — the first under new CFO Judith Hartmann, who took over on June 1. She will provide an updated outlook on debt reduction and cash flow generation following the Supreme Court ruling. If the Missouri settlement clears on July 9 and Asundexian continues to advance through regulatory channels without setbacks, the stock could target its 52-week high of €49.93. Should either narrative falter, the rally’s foundation — built on relief rather than structural change — may prove brittle.
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Bayer Stock: New Analysis - 29 June
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