Berlin’s Stance Softens, S&P Cools on Commerzbank as UniCredit Circles
Published on 07/18/2026 at 11:01 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
For weeks, the story around Commerzbank was one of relentless takeover speculation lifting the shares. That narrative took a double hit on Friday. The stock slid 3.25 percent to €36.66 — its sharpest single-day move in months — after the German government signaled it would drop its blanket opposition to UniCredit’s advance and instead prepare a list of demands for negotiations. Compounding the pressure, S&P Global revised its credit outlook on the lender from “positive” to “stable,” citing the operational and strategic risks posed by the looming ownership battle. The shares now sit 6.43 percent below their 52-week high of €39.18, reached only on July 14.
The political pivot marks a clear break with Berlin’s earlier resistance. According to WirtschaftsWoche, Chancellor Friedrich Merz has instructed officials to draw up conditions centered on three non-negotiables: safeguarding lending to mid-sized companies (the Mittelstand), preserving Commerzbank’s independent stock-market listing, and maintaining Frankfurt as the group’s headquarters. The government is no longer ruling out a deal — Merz has said the final decision belongs to shareholders. A green light from the European Central Bank is still pending, and media reports suggest any transaction is unlikely to close before 2027. The change of heart was all the more striking given that only weeks earlier, the Danish paper Børsen had reported that Berlin rejected an outright sale of its remaining Commerzbank stake to UniCredit on price grounds.
UniCredit’s grip on the German lender has tightened steadily. After the official acceptance period for its share-exchange offer expired in early July, the Italian bank said it had secured a 47.59 percent stake on a calculated basis — comprising 17.6 percent from the tender offer, 26.77 percent held previously, and derivative positions that push the economic exposure to 49.65 percent. The terms of the exchange were set at 0.485 UniCredit shares for each Commerzbank share. CEO Bettina Orlopp had previously dismissed the offer as inadequate in an interview with the FAZ, noting that less than a third of independent shareholders tendered their stakes. The political reversal in Berlin now threatens to undermine that defiant stance.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Commerzbank?
Undeterred, Commerzbank’s management continues to pursue its own strategic agenda. In mid-July, the board fleshed out its capital-return plans under the "Momentum 2030" program, pledging to distribute nearly 100 percent of net profit after AT1 coupons via dividends and buybacks in the 2026–2028 period. The annual general meeting in May had already approved a dividend of €1.10 per share for fiscal 2025, up from €0.65 a year earlier, and authorized share repurchases of up to 10 percent of share capital. Operationally, the bank raised its full-year guidance after a strong first quarter and has deepened its use of artificial intelligence by integrating Google Cloud Gemini Enterprise and Microsoft 365 Copilot into daily workflows.
The regulatory backdrop is shifting in UniCredit’s favor. The European Commission recently published a report on banking-sector competitiveness that explicitly criticized national interference in cross-border mergers — naming the UniCredit/Commerzbank case as an example. Concrete proposals to ease capital and reporting requirements are expected by the first quarter of 2027. Yet the Bundesbank has warned against rushing to loosen capital rules, underscoring the tension between Brussels’ integration ambitions and national prudential caution. Meanwhile, WirtschaftsWoche has reported that UniCredit may cut as many as 7,000 jobs if it eventually completes the takeover, a figure that is already galvanizing union and staff resistance.
All eyes now turn to August 6, when Commerzbank publishes its second-quarter 2026 results. The report will be scrutinized not only for the financials but also for any strategic signals from management. For now, neither a purchase price nor a binding timeline has emerged from Berlin’s newly open posture. Over the past twelve months, the stock has still gained 29.22 percent, powered largely by the same takeover speculation that now faces its most serious political test.
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