Bettina Orlopp Takes the Fight to 500,000 Shareholders as Commerzbank Rejects UniCredit's Stake Claims

Commerzbank’s chief executive has gone direct to the bank’s investor base, dispatching personal letters to more than 500,000 retail holders and hundreds of institutional funds with a blunt message: do not tender your shares into UniCredit’s extended offer. The campaign represents an escalation in the battle for control, as management seeks to rebut the Italian lender’s claim that it has effective access to roughly 39.3% of Commerzbank’s equity.

The central weapon in Bettina Orlopp’s argument is a breakdown of the actual tender data. According to Commerzbank’s own calculations, independent retail investors accounted for just 0.05% of the shares that have been offered to UniCredit. Institutional investors contributed around 1.29%. By far the largest chunk — 11.17% — came from banks acting as derivative counterparties with ties to UniCredit. The bank’s leadership insists that the core shareholder base remains “largely unchanged,” dismissing the Milanese group’s headline figure as an artificial construct.

That message is being reinforced by technical market signals. Commerzbank’s stock has rallied more than 40% over the past twelve months and recently touched a 52-week high of €38.85. At current levels around the year’s peak, the shares trade well above the 50-day moving average of €36.40 — a level the bank’s defense team views as a crucial floor. The relative strength index sits at 59.2, suggesting upward momentum without overheating. Yet the stock has also edged lower over the past week, consolidating near resistance rather than breaking decisively higher. The question hanging over the price action is whether the takeover saga will eventually erode confidence or the standalone strategy will hold firm.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Commerzbank?

Political backing bolsters the management’s hand. Berlin, which still holds roughly 12% of Commerzbank through the financial market stabilisation fund, has publicly stated it will not tender. The government has criticised both the pricing of UniCredit’s exchange offer — 0.485 UniCredit shares for each Commerzbank share — and the Italian bank’s approach. Orlopp’s own “Momentum 2030” plan, which targets a net return on equity of 21% by the end of the decade, is being presented as a value-creating alternative that analyst price targets already endorse.

All eyes are now on the calendar. The extended acceptance period for UniCredit’s offer closes on 3 July, with the final take-up rate to be announced on 8 July. That date will determine exactly how much influence UniCredit can wield ahead of Commerzbank’s annual general meeting, where the Milanese lender has signalled it may push for board representation. On 6 August, Commerzbank publishes its quarterly results — the first real-world test of whether the “Momentum 2030” strategy can deliver on its promises.

For every percentage point above €36.40, the bullish narrative gains credibility. A sustained break below that level would shift the conversation toward the unresolved governance risk: an open shareholder structure, political friction, and the prospect of lengthy regulatory battles. Until the 8 July tally is known, the market is left watching both the chart and the letterbox — and betting that the story is far from over.

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