BlackRock Adjusts Voting Stake as Hensoldt Navigates Project Q Entry and F126 Fallout
Published on 07/21/2026 at 19:43 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The defence electronics group Hensoldt is heading into its half-year report on July 31 with a pack of competing narratives: a blue-chip asset manager subtly expanding its direct voting rights, analysts firing in opposite directions, and a key frigate programme disappearing from its radar. The stock has clawed back about 10 percent over the past month to trade near €76, but remains more than a third below its 52-week high of €115.10 set last October.
BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, filed a pair of notifications in quick succession that show it shifting the composition of its Hensoldt holding. In a mid-July filing, the group raised its direct voting stake from 2.75 percent to 3.13 percent while leaving its total interest unchanged at 4.99 percent. A subsequent filing, reported late last week, recorded the direct share at 2.75 percent, up from 2.24 percent, again with the aggregate holding static. The net effect is that BlackRock has increased its directly held position by roughly half a percentage point over a short period, though the overall economic exposure remains the same.
That subtle rejigging comes as Hensoldt pushes deeper into software-centric defence technology. Mid-July saw the group acquire a strategic minority stake in the start-up “Project Q” as part of a financing round, with an eye on multi-domain integration – an area that increasingly determines competitive advantage in European defence procurement. The move sits alongside the opening of a new logistics hub in Wolfhagen for the Bundeswehr’s ZEBEL spare-parts project, which is due to start operations in September.
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Offsetting those positive signals, the German defence ministry’s decision in late June to halt the F126 frigate programme in favour of MEKO A-200 frigates has created a hole in Hensoldt’s order pipeline. The company had been lined up as the radar supplier for F126 and is still assessing the financial implications. That overhang is feeding into analysts’ sharply divergent views.
Jefferies analyst Chloe Lemarie raised her price target to €94 from €90 on 10 July, reiterating a “Buy” rating on the strength of Hensoldt’s position in defence electronics. Just 24 hours earlier, mwb research had cut its rating to “Sell” from “Hold” and slashed its target to €62, citing valuation risks and the potential for reduced order opportunities after the NATO summit. The €32 gap between the two targets underscores the uncertainty surrounding the stock.
Operationally, the company has been putting up strong numbers. First-quarter data showed order intake more than doubling to €1,483 million, revenue climbing 25 percent to €496 million, and adjusted EBITDA rising 46.7 percent to €44 million. In early June, Hensoldt raised its full-year guidance for adjusted free cash flow conversion to roughly 50 percent of adjusted EBITDA, up from the previous expectation of around 40 percent, citing faster procurement processes and higher customer advance payments in Germany. The annual dividend for fiscal 2025 was also lifted by 10 percent to €0.55 per share, approved at the May shareholder meeting.
Yet the stock has recovered only about 20 percent from its 52-week low of €63.12 touched on 26 June, suggesting the market is still pricing in a significant risk premium tied to the F126 exit and the debate over valuation. The half-year report, due on 31 July, will give investors their first clear look at how the cash-flow upgrade is translating into day-to-day performance and whether the programme cancellation is leaving a measurable dent in the backlog. Until then, the tug-of-war between Jefferies and mwb research leaves the narrative firmly in two camps.
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