BMW's Hungarian Factory Hits 50,000 EVs as HSBC Turns Bullish Ahead of Earnings
Published on 07/29/2026 at 11:11 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The Bavarian automaker is navigating a tale of two worlds. Its new Debrecen plant in Hungary has just rolled out its 50,000th iX3 electric vehicle, marking the fastest production ramp-up in company history, while a punishing luxury tax in China continues to hammer sales. Yet BMW shares have found a bid this week, climbing 4.06% on Tuesday to close at €59.98, after HSBC upgraded the stock from "Hold" to "Buy" with a €71 price target.
The timing of the upgrade is deliberate. BMW releases its full half-year report on Wednesday, July 30, at 7:30 a.m. MESZ, and HSBC is betting the worst is already priced in. The stock has shed 35.8% since the start of the year, but the bank argues that the known headwinds — China's demand slump, the slashed EBIT margin forecast of 1% to 3% in the auto segment — are now fully reflected in the share price.
Production chief Raymond Wittmann struck a triumphant note on the Hungarian milestone. "Never before have we built so many vehicles so quickly in a new plant," he said, noting that the second shift started in February, well ahead of schedule. The iX3 is the first model built on BMW's "Neue Klasse" architecture, the platform that will underpin the company's entire electric vehicle strategy going forward. Nearly 100,000 orders for the model are already in the pipeline, according to company sources.
The US market is providing a bright counterpoint to China's struggles. BMW sold 102,713 vehicles in the US during the second quarter, a 13% year-on-year increase, marking the third consecutive quarter in which the brand outperformed the broader American market. European sales rose 5.4% in the first half, while global BEV deliveries climbed 5.2% in Q2 to 116,807 units, with Europe leading the charge.
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But none of that has been enough to offset the damage in China. First-half sales in the country plunged 20%, with the second quarter alone seeing a roughly 30% drop. The culprit is a tightened luxury tax introduced in July 2025. BMW has downplayed the impact, insisting the levy only affects "a few high-end models" with low volumes and wealthy buyers. The German automotive industry association VDA takes a harsher view, arguing the tax has "predictably had a particularly negative impact on European and especially German manufacturers, as it targets high-value vehicles."
The half-year picture is sobering: global deliveries fell 4.2%, dragged down entirely by China. The stock remains nearly 39% below its December 2025 high of €97.90, and still trades 24.87% below its 200-day moving average of €79.84. The RSI of 49.4 sits in neutral territory, leaving room for further recovery — provided Wednesday's earnings report doesn't spring any unwelcome surprises on cash flow or liquidity.
Adding to the noise, BMW has issued a global recall of 744,234 vehicles, including 3 Series, 5 Series, and X5 models, over a potential fire risk from defective starter relays. Traders interpreted the stock's resilience as a sign that the market has already priced in the associated provisions.
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The iX3 Flow, a special edition tied to the release of Spider-Man: Brand New Day, is being positioned as a marketing coup to build momentum for the Neue Klasse lineup. But the real test comes Thursday morning, when investors will learn whether BMW can hold its lowered profit guidance. If the outlook holds steady, HSBC's call may prove prescient. If fresh headwinds emerge, the fragile recovery could stall just as quickly as it began.
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