BMW Shares Sink to Oversold Levels Despite $1.7 Billion US Bet and JPMorgan's 82-Euro Target
02.07.2026 - 11:21:40 | boerse-global.de
The contrasting forces shaping BMW’s outlook could hardly be starker. While the automaker pours $1.7 billion into expanding its South Carolina footprint and showcases a fifth-generation X5 with an 845-kilometre electric range, its stock has cratered to within a whisker of a 52-week low. The shares closed Wednesday at €58.32, just 2.21% above the June 30 trough of €57.06, and have shed 39.20% since the start of the year.
JPMorgan analyst Jose Asumendi, however, sees value. He reaffirmed an “Overweight” rating on Wednesday with an €82 price target – down from his own €100 call in June, but still implying significant upside. His conviction rests not on China or margins, but on the robotics strategy unfolding at the Spartanburg plant, where humanoid robots are now part of the assembly line.
The US expansion is now complete. BMW invested $1.7 billion to enlarge the Spartanburg plant and build a new battery assembly facility in Woodruff, South Carolina. The first fully electric model to roll off that line will be the iX5, with series production scheduled between late 2026 and the first quarter of 2027. Spartanburg remains BMW’s global export hub: 412,799 X-series vehicles were built there in 2025, and with an export value exceeding $113 billion, BMW is still America’s largest automotive exporter by value.
The fifth-generation X5 made its world premiere in Spartanburg on June 30, 2026. The iX5 variant uses an 800-volt architecture with a 141 kWh battery, offering a WLTP range of up to 845 kilometres (roughly 435 miles on the EPA cycle) and charging from 10% to 80% in about 22 minutes at a peak power of 460 kW. Internal combustion, diesel, and 48V mild-hybrid versions will hit showrooms in November 2026, with the electric and hydrogen iX5 Hydrogen following in early 2027.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying BMW?
Despite the product firepower, the market has fixated on the profit warning BMW issued in June. The company slashed its EBIT margin forecast for the automotive segment from 4%–6% to just 1%–3%, citing a weaker-than-expected Chinese market. Local rivals Leapmotor and Nio both reported record deliveries in June, intensifying price competition. The EU Commission is also weighing a shift from planned countervailing tariffs on Chinese EVs to a minimum-price mechanism, adding policy uncertainty.
The selloff has been brutal. Over the past 30 days, BMW’s stock has lost more than 20%, and its relative strength index has dropped to 23.5 – deep into oversold territory. From the December high of €97.90, the shares are now more than 40% lower.
Yet the company continues to deploy capital. Having converted all preference shares into common stock on June 30, BMW launched the third tranche of its buyback programme. It will repurchase up to 44 million ordinary shares, with a total envelope of up to €2 billion. Preference share repurchases are capped at €350 million, and the entire programme must be completed by April 30, 2027.
The buyback contrasts sharply with the profit warning. Two weeks after the guidance cut, production of the new 7 Series began. Meanwhile, Uwe Breitweg, who leads BMW’s powertrain, emissions and battery strategy, moved onto the board of Solid Power on July 1, deepening collaboration on solid-state battery technology.
BMW at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Analysts remain broadly positive despite the turbulence. Of 15 experts covering the stock in June, nine rated it a buy, five a hold, and only one a sell. The consensus price target sits well above current levels, though JPMorgan’s Asumendi has trimmed his own view from €100 to €82.
The next major tests lie ahead. BMW’s pre-close conference call on July 10 and the half-year results on July 30 will reveal how deeply the margin compression is cutting into operating earnings. Until then, the robotics push and the $1.7 billion US bet provide the narrative anchor for those willing to look past the near-term pain.
Ad
BMW Stock: New Analysis - 2 July
Fresh BMW information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
