BMW Slumps to New Lows as Analysts Clash Over Recovery Prospects and EU Tariffs Loom
23.06.2026 - 17:56:27 | boerse-global.de
BMW’s stock has been pummelled by its third profit warning in three years, but the sell-off has sparked a rare split among Wall Street’s biggest houses. While some analysts argue the shares are now deeply undervalued, others see further downside as the company’s China headache worsens and cost-cutting efforts accelerate.
The Munich-based carmaker now expects an EBIT margin of just 1 to 3 percent for 2026, down sharply from its previous target of 4 to 6 percent. Group pretax profit is also set to fall significantly. The downgrade came after first-quarter deliveries in China dropped 10 percent in a broader market that shrank 17.5 percent — meaning BMW is losing ground both to the market slowdown and to competitors.
The stock has tumbled more than 36 percent since the start of the year and currently trades at €61.10, perilously close to its 52-week low of €58.80. The relative strength index stands at 23.7, deep in oversold territory — often a technical signal that a bounce could be near, though no guarantee in a fundamental crisis.
Analyst Targets Diverge Wildly
Goldman Sachs has maintained a “Buy” rating with a price target of €84, arguing that the recent rout is overdone and that BMW’s hefty cash reserves will provide a buffer. The US bank forecasts robust cash flow in the billions over the coming years.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying BMW?
In stark contrast, Jefferies slashed its target to €70 on June 17, citing persistent weakness in China and a steeper-than-expected margin collapse. Bernstein Research cut its target from €108 to €85 but kept an “Outperform” rating, noting that BMW had lowered its guidance across revenue, operating margin and cash flow. Berenberg reduced its target to €69, while UBS cut to €70 and sharply revised down earnings per share estimates. UBS analyst Patrick Hummel does not see a recovery in China until after 2028.
The wide range of targets — from €69 to €85 — reflects deep uncertainty about how quickly BMW can stabilise its margins and stem market share losses in its most important single market.
EU Tariff Talk Offers a Glimmer
One potential tailwind comes from Brussels. The European Union is preparing new countervailing duties targeting Chinese plug-in hybrids, which would broaden existing tariffs that currently apply only to pure battery-electric vehicles from China. Chinese manufacturers such as BYD have increasingly shifted to hybrid exports to avoid the existing levy. BMW holds a strong position in premium hybrids in Europe, and additional tariffs on rival Chinese models would help protect that advantage. UBS’s Hummel views the possible move as mildly positive for the Munich group, and the EU could implement the measures relatively quickly.
Job Cuts and the i3 Bet
Internally, BMW is stepping up its cost-saving programme. Up to 7,700 positions are expected to be eliminated by year-end, mostly through natural attrition. The company also plans to launch the new i3 in autumn at a starting price of €65,900, a bid to regain ground in the fiercely competitive electric-vehicle segment.
The efficiency drive will generate significant one-time costs in the second half of the year, adding to near-term earnings pressure.
BMW at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Insiders Buy, Eyes on Key Dates
Despite the gloom, several BMW executives purchased shares on June 23 at current depressed levels, a move often interpreted as a signal that management considers the stock undervalued.
Investors now have two critical dates on the calendar. On June 30, BMW releases second-quarter figures, providing the first hard evidence of how deep the China weakness runs. The full half-year report follows on July 30, when management must show whether its accelerated savings plan is gaining traction. A capital markets day in September will outline the longer-term strategy, including detailed cost-reduction targets and margin goals.
Until then, the shares remain hostage to headlines from China and the electric-vehicle battleground — though the EU tariff story could provide a rare note of relief.
Ad
BMW Stock: New Analysis - 23 June
Fresh BMW information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
